|
|
VOL 8 | NUM 9 | 5 September 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MEXICO - SIN | 24 - 30 August 2025
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LMP Reduction Driven by Increased Contribution of Renewable Energy
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 31.89/MWh.
|
|
The Energy Component was 34% lower from the previous week and 5.5% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
|
|
The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 703/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Cementos Mexicanos (West) at USD -32.8/MWh.
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component ranged between USD 0/MWh and USD 72.72/MWh. The average LMP this week dropped by nearly the same proportion as the 44% increase recorded last week. Demand also declined over the past two weeks, reversing previous gains, and is expected to continue trending downward for the remainder of the year, according to historical data. Wind generation increased by 66.4% compared to the previous week and, along with a greater contribution from hydroelectric plants, helped reduce energy costs in most SIN regions. However, congestion in the Peninsular region rose by 38% due to increased energy transfers from the East region, keeping its average daily maximum price above 200 USD/MWh.
|
|
The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
|
- Central (Victoria) +18.9%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +0.9%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -36.5%
- North (Moctezuma) -26.8%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +1.3%
- East (Temascal) +30.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +232.4%
|
|
Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Victoria
USD 37.9/MWh
|
|
Monterrey
USD 32.2/MWh
|
|
Nacozari
USD 20.3/MWh
|
|
Moctezuma
USD 23.4/MWh
|
|
|
S. L. Potosí
USD 32.3/MWh
|
|
Temascal
USD 41.5/MWh
|
|
Ticul
USD 106.0/MWh
|
|
Energy Component
USD 31.9/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hours
|
Transmission Link
|
Region
|
|
143
|
Enlace Cozumel
|
Peninsular
|
|
140
|
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
|
Northwest
|
|
129
|
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
|
East
|
|
42
|
Malpaso - Tabasco
|
East
|
|
40
|
Teotihuacan - Texcoco
|
Central
|
|
31
|
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
|
North
|
|
29
|
Noreste - Norte
|
Northeast
|
|
18
|
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
|
Northeast
|
|
17
|
Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
|
Peninsular
|
|
16
|
Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
|
Peninsular
|
|
|
Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 156.29 GWh (+66.4%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 34.75 GWh (-9.2%), compared to last week.
|
|
Wind captured price was USD 1.3/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 4.2/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
|
|
Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price*
|
Wind Price*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly planned demand decreased by 1.96% from the previous week to 7.49 TW, while peak demand was 47.2 GW showing a decrease of 1.05% compared to the previous week.
|
|
Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -2.24 pp, Legacy Contract +1.37 pp, Non dispatchable +0.19 pp, Hydro Power +0.2 pp and Renewable +0.48 pp.
|
|
Planned generation mix
|
|
|
|
|
Planned variation
|
|
|
|
|
Planned demand in the MDA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.6 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.53%
|
|
Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.85/MMBtu, decreasing by 0.21%. Natural gas prices at Henry Hub reached a weekly average close to the lowest of the year, at 2.836 USD/MMBtu. This was driven by record production, mild weather that reduced electricity consumption, and strong storage injections. While domestic demand remained moderate, exports — both LNG and pipeline flows to Mexico — increased significantly, helping absorb part of the supply surplus. The EIA revised its price forecasts downward for the remainder of the year, while market volatility continued to decline, reflecting more stable conditions.
|
|
WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +0.6%, -0.1%, and +1.6% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 64.52/bbl., USD 67.77/bbl., and USD 62.87/bbl. The Mexican Export Blend (MME) increase was supported by a slight rebound in international demand and a firm crude price environment. WTI rose due to geopolitical tensions, while Brent remained practically unchanged, reflecting a balance between bullish and bearish market pressures. Expectations regarding OPEC+ decisions, rising U.S. crude inventories, and moderate global demand shaped the market tone throughout the week.
|
|
Map
|
|
|
|
|
International indexes
|
|
|
|
|
The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
|
DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
