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VOL 8 | NUM 8 | 29 August 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 17 - 23 August 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Effects of Wind Power Shortfalls on LMP Dynamics
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 48.08/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 44% and 73.4% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 621/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -61.57/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 22.65/MWh and USD 187.27/MWh. The average LMP increased significantly, ranking among the highest of the year, even though electricity demand decreased. The price surge coincided with a 34% drop in wind generation, requiring the use of more expensive sources such as thermal generation to meet demand. All regions reported positive average prices, with a notable peak occurring on Wednesday during peak hour.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +19.8%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +3.8%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -35.4%
- North (Moctezuma) -26.3%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +1.7%
- East (Temascal) +56.0%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +126.9%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 57.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 49.9/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 31.1/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 35.5/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 48.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 75.0/MWh
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Ticul
USD 109.1/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 48.1/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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149
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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77
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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76
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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41
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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24
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Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
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Peninsular
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15
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Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 121.81 GWh (-51.8%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 16.02 GWh, compared to last week (-3.9%).
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Wind captured price was USD 1.3/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 10.3/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 1.8% from the previous week to 7.64 TW, while peak demand was 47.7 GW showing a decrease of 2.85% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +1.62 pp, Legacy Contract -0.42 pp, Non dispatchable +0.32 pp, Hydro Power -0.32 pp and Renewable -1.19 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.7 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.85/MMBtu, decreasing by 2.86%. The average Henry Hub natural gas price dropped slightly because U.S. production remains high, and storage levels are ample. This keeps prices in check due to plenty of supply. Also, domestic demand, especially for electricity generation, was lower because of cooler weather, so less air conditioning was needed. Although gas exports and shipments to Mexico stayed strong, they weren’t enough to push prices up during this period.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -0.3%, +1%, and +0.6% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 64.14/bbl., USD 67.82/bbl., and USD 61.65/bbl. Brent, WTI, and MME oil prices showed a slight recovery. Brent reached around $68 per barrel, driven by technical adjustments and expectations of increased OPEC+ production. WTI closed near $65 per barrel, supported by favorable U.S. economic data and potential interest rate changes. The MME followed the international trend, maintaining its typical discount compared to Brent. Although prices rebounded, medium-term forecasts suggest a moderate trend influenced by global supply and demand dynamics.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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