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VOL 8 | NUM 7 | 22 August 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 10 - 16 August 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Electricity Demand and LMP Show No Significant Variations in Recent Months
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 33.49/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 0% higher from the previous week and 22.3% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Chetumal Norte (Peninsular) at USD 804/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -56.05/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 6.4/MWh and USD 71.95/MWh. This week, the LMP decreased by 16%, matching last week's decline and reaching levels like those of week 31 in 2024. Demand remained stable, following last year's trend. Peak hours in the peninsular region saw LMP increases due to congestion, except on August 2nd. The rest of the country, except for the north and northwest regions experiencing negative congestion and losses, showed stable energy values without congestion. Additionally, there was a reduction in renewable generation, particularly in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +22.4%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +4.0%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -36.0%
- North (Moctezuma) -19.2%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +3.3%
- East (Temascal) +112.2%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +202.2%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 41.0/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 34.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 21.4/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 27.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 34.6/MWh
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Temascal
USD 71.1/MWh
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Ticul
USD 101.2/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 33.5/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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128
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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96
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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65
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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38
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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14
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Sonora Norte - Juarez
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North
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12
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Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 94.22 GWh (-26.4%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 23.66 GWh, compared to last week (-5.5%).
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Wind captured price was USD 1.5/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 5.9/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 0.13% from the previous week to 7.78 TW, while peak demand was 49.1 GW showing an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +2.62 pp, Legacy Contract -1.24 pp, Non dispatchable -0.36 pp, Hydro Power -0.58 pp and Renewable -0.45 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.7 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.94/MMBtu, decreasing by 1.87%. Futures prices also declined, reflecting sustained bearish expectations. This decrease is driven by a strongly oversupplied market and weaker demand pressure. The drop occurred despite summer conditions, which usually increase electricity consumption.
In addition, the 12-month forward average fell to USD 3.58/MMBtu. Overall, the trend signals structural weakness in the natural gas market.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -2.2%, -1.5%, and -1.8% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 64.34/bbl., USD 67.17/bbl., and USD 61.32/bbl. WTI fell to around USD 63.68 /bbl, driven by an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories and growing concerns over oversupply. Brent also weakened, trading near USD 66–68/bbl, as OPEC+ raised production quotas and global demand projections softened. The MME blend followed the downward trend, tracking Brent’s movement amid similar global pressures. Overall, rising supply, cautious demand outlooks, and stable refinery activity contributed to the bearish tone across crude markets.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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