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VOL 8 | NUM 6 | 15 August 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 3 - 9 August 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Record Week: Highest forecasted Electricity Demand of the Year
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 33.47/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 15% higher from the previous week and 25.2% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Candelaria Dos (Peninsular) at USD 687/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -14.44/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The average weekly LMP increased by 15% compared to last week but remains 25% lower than in 2024 and 44% lower than in 2023. This week, electricity demand was forecasted to reach its highest point of the year on Thursday, August 7, with 53.07 GWh at 17 hours, and a total of 7.7 TWh for the week. However, on June 9th of this year at 17 hour the real demand per withdrawals was 53.18 GWh. This surpassed the above-mentioned value, although the forecasted demand for that date was only 52.66 GWh. Therefore, it will be interesting to compare the forecasted demand versus the real once the data is available. Also, during the week, solar energy production surpassed wind, which saw an 18% drop. After three months of growth, hydropower decreased for the second consecutive week, while thermal generation increased by nearly 4%.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +7.0%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +1.0%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -34.5%
- North (Moctezuma) -24.8%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -0.1%
- East (Temascal) +14.7%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +118.3%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 35.8/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 33.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 21.9/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 25.2/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 33.4/MWh
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Temascal
USD 38.4/MWh
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Ticul
USD 73.1/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 33.5/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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122
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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122
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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21
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Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
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Peninsular
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20
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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19
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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18
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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12
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Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 100.5 GWh (-22.3%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 8.93 GWh (+2%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.8/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 5.2/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 3.74% from the previous week to 7.77 TW, while peak demand was 49 GW showing an increase of 4.26% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +3.13 pp, Legacy Contract -1.52 pp, Non dispatchable -0.07 pp, Hydro Power -1.12 pp and Renewable -0.42 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.7 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.53%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.99/MMBtu, decreasing by 1.32%. Henry Hub natural gas prices dropped primarily due to a combination of high storage levels (about 6.6% above the five-year average) and persistent strong production, which together created a supply surplus. Softer weather forecasts for mid-August delayed cooling demand, pushing futures below $2.90/MMBtu. Additionally, the EIA revised its price outlook downward, citing elevated inventories. Finally, domestic consumption fell significantly, especially in the electric power sector, further weakening upward price pressure.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -5.8%, -6.2%, and -5% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 65.75/bbl., USD 68.17/bbl., and USD 62.64/bbl. Oil prices declined due to an unexpected increase in OPEC+ production announced for September, raising oversupply concerns. U.S. crude inventories also rose by 3 million barrels, contrary to market expectations. WTI and Brent dropped to their lowest levels since early June. Global demand worries and new trade tensions added further downward pressure. Financial markets responded with a wave of sell-offs in oil futures. The MME index followed this trend, reflecting lower pricing across global benchmarks.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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