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VOL 8 | NUM 5 | 8 August 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 27 July - 2 August 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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High Peak Hour Congestion Drives LMP in the Peninsular Region Throughout the Week
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 29.01/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 16% lower from the previous week and 3.8% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Candelaria Dos (Peninsular) at USD 683/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Terminal de Gas Manzanillo (West) at USD -3.34/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 19.54/MWh and USD 63.07/MWh. LMP decreased by 16%, matching last week's decline and reaching levels like those of week 31 in 2024. Demand remained stable, following last year's trend. Peak hours in the peninsular region saw LMP increases due to congestion, except on August 2nd. The rest of the country, except for the north and northwest regions experiencing negative congestion and losses, showed stable energy values without congestion. Additionally, there was a reduction in renewable generation, particularly in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +5.8%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -1.7%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -44.0%
- North (Moctezuma) -37.6%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -3.0%
- East (Temascal) +7.2%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +81.8%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 30.7/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 28.5/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 16.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 18.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 28.1/MWh
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Temascal
USD 31.1/MWh
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Ticul
USD 52.7/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 29.0/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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145 |
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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125 |
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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18 |
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 2.62 GWh (-0.5%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 5.41 GWh, compared to last week (-1.2%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.3/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 1.7/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 0.13% from the previous week to 7.49 TW, while peak demand was 47 GW showing a decrease of 0.42% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.62 pp, Legacy Contract +0.54 pp, Non dispatchable +0.12 pp, Hydro Power -0.77 pp and Renewable -0.52 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.8 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 1.08%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.03/MMBtu, decreasing by 5.01%. Henry Hub natural gas prices experienced a moderate decline, closing around $3.04 per MMBtu. This decrease was mainly due to strong domestic production and substantial additions to storage levels. Although temperatures were higher than usual, overall demand remained steady without significant changes. The market was well supplied, which helped ease the upward pressure on prices.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +3.7%, +3.3%, and +4.5% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 69.58/bbl., USD 72.41/bbl., and USD 65.93/bbl. WTI closed near $69.6/bbl and Brent at $72.4/bbl, both up about 3%. The MME index rose 4.5%, driven by mild weather and increased refinery activity. Expectations of higher OPEC+ output and steady global demand moderated prices. Slight easing in US-EU trade tensions supported the modest price gains.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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