|
|
VOL 8 | NUM 4 | 4 August 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MEXICO - SIN | 20 - 26 July 2025
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Demand continues to increase for the fourth consecutive week
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 34.51/MWh.
|
|
The Energy Component was 16% higher from the previous week and 13.5% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
|
|
The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 659/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Donato Guerra (Center) at USD -3.71/MWh.
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component ranged between USD 23.77/MWh and USD 94.84/MWh. unday's lower demand, compared to weekdays, drove reference node prices in the Northwest and North down to USD 0/MWh. Despite a drop in natural gas prices and thermal generation, the slow yet steady weekly increase in demand continued to put upward pressure on LMPs. Last week, the congestion component accounted for 47% of Ticul’s LMP. This, combined with higher renewable generation input from the East, likely contributed to significant congestion in the Peninsular and Central regions.
|
|
The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
|
- Central (Victoria) +5.5%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -2.0%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -32.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -27.6%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.3%
- East (Temascal) +8.4%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +135.7%
|
|
Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Victoria
USD 36.4/MWh
|
|
Monterrey
USD 33.8/MWh
|
|
Nacozari
USD 23.2/MWh
|
|
Moctezuma
USD 25.0/MWh
|
|
|
S. L. Potosí
USD 34.1/MWh
|
|
Temascal
USD 37.4/MWh
|
|
Ticul
USD 81.3/MWh
|
|
Energy Component
USD 34.5/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hours
|
Transmission Link
|
Region
|
|
160 |
Enlace Cozumel
|
Peninsular
|
|
153 |
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
|
East
|
|
123 |
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
|
Northwest
|
|
50 |
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
|
Northeast
|
|
48 |
Noreste - Norte
|
Northeast
|
|
43 |
Malpaso - Tabasco
|
East
|
|
28 |
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
|
North
|
|
7 |
Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
|
Peninsular
|
|
|
Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 42.94 GWh (+8.4%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 47.32 GWh, compared to last week (+11.7%).
|
|
Wind captured price was USD 0.6/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 5.3/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
|
|
Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price*
|
Wind Price*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly planned demand increased by 0.67% from the previous week to 7.5 TW, while peak demand was 47.2 GW showing an increase of 1.07% compared to the previous week.
|
|
Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -1.33 pp, Legacy Contract +0.55 pp, Non dispatchable -0.24 pp, Hydro Power +0.4 pp and Renewable +0.63 pp.
|
|
Planned generation mix
|
|
|
|
|
Planned variation
|
|
|
|
|
Planned demand in the MDA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.6 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.53%
|
|
Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.19/MMBtu, decreasing by 5.84%. From Monday to Tuesday, natural gas prices dropped by 9.7%, reaching their lowest closing level since April. The sharp decline was driven by weakening cooling demand, in contrast to robust production levels, which are expected to lead to a storage surplus. According to the Energy Information Administration, the front-month fututres price fell in the firts half of 2025, signaling greater market stability as storage levels pf fuel close in on the prior five-year avg.
|
|
WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -1.4%, -0.8%, and -0.5% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 67.11/bbl., USD 70.09/bbl., and USD 63.14/bbl. Oil prices extended their downward trend for a third consecutive week, fueling speculation about the stability of the global economy. On one side, concerns were driven by former President Trump’s discussions with the Federal Reserve Chair advocating for lower interest rates, while on the other, a decline in China’s fiscal revenues during the first half of the year added further pressure.
|
|
Map
|
|
|
|
|
International indexes
|
|
|
|
|
The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
|
DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
