|
|
VOL 8 | NUM 31 | 6 February 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MEXICO - SIN | 25 - 31 January 2026
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Colder Temperatures drive natural gas and electricity price increases
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 88.6/MWh.
|
|
The Energy Component was 126% and 97.4% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2025, respectively.
|
|
The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Xcalacoco (Peninsular) at USD 886/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Cuadro de Maniobras Eolica Coahuila (Northeast) at USD -29.92/MWh.
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
|
- Central (Victoria) +2.5%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -2.2%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -34.3%
- North (Moctezuma) -28.3%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -0.2%
- East (Temascal) -0.4%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +7.3%
|
|
The increase in U.S. natural gas prices associated with the winter storm resulted in an elevated system energy component from Sunday through Wednesday, averaging for the week USD 88.6/MWh and broadly consistent with price dynamics observed during the final two days of the prior week. Most regions largely tracked movements in the system energy component, although material regional differentials persisted. Ticul recorded the highest local marginal price at USD 95.1/MWh, however, it was closer to the energy component system compared to previous weeks, reflecting a reduced congestion impact. Similarly, Victoria (USD 90.8/MWh), Monterrey (USD 86.6/MWh), San Luis Potosí (USD 88.4/MWh), and Temascal (USD 88.2/MWh) exhibited close alignment with the system energy component, indicating relatively balanced supply–demand conditions. By contrast, Nacozari (USD 58.2/MWh) and Moctezuma (USD 63.5/MWh) remained significantly lower relative to the broader system, suggesting persistent transmission constraints, low local demand, and strong solar generation contributing to congestion and losses.
|
|
Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Victoria
USD 90.8/MWh
|
|
Monterrey
USD 86.6/MWh
|
|
Nacozari
USD 58.2/MWh
|
|
Moctezuma
USD 63.5/MWh
|
|
|
S. L. Potosí
USD 88.4/MWh
|
|
Temascal
USD 88.2/MWh
|
|
Ticul
USD 95.1/MWh
|
|
Energy Component
USD 88.6/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hours
|
Transmission Link
|
Region
|
|
110
|
Culiacan - Mazatlan
|
Northwest
|
|
64
|
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
|
North
|
|
29
|
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
|
East
|
|
19
|
Enlace Laguna-Saltillo
|
North - Northeast
|
|
17
|
Cumbres Frontera (Mexico) - Rail Road (USA)
|
Northeast
|
|
16
|
Enlace Cozumel
|
Peninsular
|
|
14
|
Mazatlan - Tepic
|
Northwest
|
|
10
|
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
|
Northeast
|
|
9
|
Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
|
Peninsular
|
|
|
Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 24.31 GWh (-5.4%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 36.19 GWh (+12.7%), compared to last week.
|
|
Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 4.6/MWh and USD 12.6/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
|
|
Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price*
|
Wind Price*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly planned demand increased by 1% from the previous week to 6.06 TW, while peak demand was 39.8 GW showing an increase of 2.05% compared to the previous week.
|
|
Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -1.32 pp, Legacy Contract -0.61 pp, Non dispatchable +0.71 pp, Hydro Power +1.02 pp and Renewable +0.19 pp.
|
|
Planned generation mix
|
|
|
|
|
Planned variation
|
|
|
|
|
Planned demand in the MDA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 17.3 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 1.14%
|
|
Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 13.79/MMBtu, increasing by 14.71%. This significant upswing was driven by tightening short-term supply expectations and colder weather patterns that elevated heating demand across the central and eastern United States. Meanwhile, the 12‑month strip (Feb 2026–Jan 2027) also climbed USD 0.65 to USD 3.970/MMBtu, signaling broader expectations for stronger fundamentals despite comfortable storage levels.
|
|
WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +4.6%, +5.1%, and +4.9% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 62.9/bbl., USD 70.43/bbl., and USD 59.27/bbl. WTI and Brent crude entered the week under mixed pressure, with crude prices fluctuating alongside broader macroeconomic signals. Updated daily data show crude oil trading near USD 63.14/bbl on February 6, 2026, representing a 0.24% daily decline, though the commodity has gained 12.76% month‑over‑month. Despite this, structural challenges remain as global inventories continue to build, with projections indicating that surpluses could persist through the first half of 2026. Analysts now expect Brent to average around USD 56/bbl in 2026, with WTI near USD 49/bbl, reflecting cautious sentiment as supply remains ample relative to anticipated demand recovery.
|
|
Map
|
|
|
|
|
International indexes
|
|
|
|
|
The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
|
DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
