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VOL 8 | NUM 30 | 30 January 2026
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MEXICO - SIN | 18 - 24 January 2026
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Rising Energy Component, Polarized PMLs
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 39.12/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 23% higher from the previous week and 34.2% lower than the same week in 2025, ranging between USD 21.18/MWh and USD 94.71/MWh.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Xcalacoco (Peninsular) at USD 887/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Riviera Maya (Peninsular) at USD -35.45/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +5.1%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -7.1%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -75.6%
- North (Moctezuma) -66.2%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.1%
- East (Temascal) -2.4%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +69.6%
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The weekly evolution of Local Marginal Prices (PML) across the seven MDA reference nodes showed a clear divergence, supported by a late‑week increase in the Energy Component driven by higher natural gas prices after the U.S. winter storm. Ticul recorded the highest average at USD 66.3/MWh, remaining well above the Energy Component of USD 39.1/MWh due to persistent constraints in the Peninsular region. Victoria at USD 41.1/MWh, San Luis Potosí at USD 38.7/MWh, Temascal at USD 38.2/MWh, and Monterrey at USD 36.3/MWh stayed close to the system level, indicating relatively stable local conditions with limited congestion. In contrast, Moctezuma at USD 13.2/MWh and Nacozari at USD 9.6/MWh remained far below the weekly average, reflecting ongoing negative congestion influenced by abundant solar generation and transmission limitations in those northern areas.
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 41.1/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 36.3/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 9.6/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 13.2/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 38.7/MWh
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Temascal
USD 38.2/MWh
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Ticul
USD 66.3/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 39.1/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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146
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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107
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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91
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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30
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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27
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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18
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Temascal/Cerro de Oro - el Centro
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East
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17
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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13
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 4.73 GWh (-1%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 1.07 GWh, compared to last week (-0.4%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.5/MWh and USD 3.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 100% from the previous week to 0 TW, while peak demand was 39 GW showing a decrease of 2.01% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.87 pp, Legacy Contract -0.29 pp, Non dispatchable -0.06 pp, Hydro Power +0.54 pp and Renewable +0.67 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 17.5 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 1.69%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 12.03/MMBtu, increasing by 300.57%. Henry Hub natural gas prices showed a modest rebound this week, supported by expectations of stronger winter demand and steadier conditions in the global LNG market. While storage inventories remain comfortable and U.S. production stays elevated, updated weather models indicate colder patterns forming toward late December, which could increase residential and commercial heating demand. Coupled with a slight uptick in LNG export flows, these developments have led market participants to anticipate potential upward momentum in Henry Hub pricing in the near term.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +0.1%, -0%, and -0.1% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 60.16/bbl., USD 66.99/bbl., and USD 56.25/bbl. Although oil markets continue to face uncertainty driven by ample global supply, several signals this week suggest the potential for a moderate price recovery. Temporary reductions in U.S. drilling activity have raised expectations of softer supply growth ahead, while forecasts assuming a steadying global economy point to a gradual demand rebound in 2026. Under this scenario, investors are beginning to price in higher levels for Brent and WTI toward year-end, with market sentiment turning cautiously optimistic as supply-demand balances show early signs of tightening.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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