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VOL 8 | NUM 3 | 28 July 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 13 - 19 July 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Eastern U.S. heatwave pushes natural gas prices higher; LMPs surge past USD 200/MWh amid evening congestion!
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 29.85/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 3% higher from the previous week and 36.6% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 683/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Riviera Maya (Peninsular) at USD -13.2/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 17.77/MWh and USD 61.43/MWh. LMPs in the southern region of the system exceeded USD 200/MWh, driven by elevated congestion costs during evening hours. Additionally, LMPs in the North and Northwest exhibited notable decoupling from the Energy Component during solar hours, reflecting regional imbalances and transmission constraints.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +8.9%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -0.8%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -18.9%
- North (Moctezuma) -17.7%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +0.1%
- East (Temascal) +16.8%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +201.5%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 32.5/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 29.6/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 24.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 24.6/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 29.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 34.9/MWh
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Ticul
USD 90.0/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 29.9/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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155 |
Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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150 |
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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89 |
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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74 |
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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45 |
Malpaso - Tabasco
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East
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38 |
Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 114.4 GWh (+28.8%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 4.38 GWh (-1.1%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.5/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 2.8/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 0.4% from the previous week to 7.45 TW, while peak demand was 46.7 GW showing an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.96 pp, Legacy Contract +0.93 pp, Non dispatchable -0.34 pp, Hydro Power +0.07 pp and Renewable +0.29 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.7 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 0.54%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.39/MMBtu, increasing by 7%. A heat-driven spike in electricity demand led the initial rise in natural gas prices, while limited storage levels and strong LNG exports added upward pressure. However, by mid-week, slightly improving inventory projections and steady supply caused prices to level off.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -1.6%, -1.6%, and -1.4% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 68.07/bbl., USD 70.66/bbl., and USD 63.4/bbl. Oil prices during the week were driven by indications of tightening supply, including OPEC+ production decisions and U.S. inventory data showing crude stock draws. Mid-week support came from trade optimism and geopolitical developments, particularly expectations of U.S.–EU agreements and potential export cuts from Russia.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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