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VOL 8 | NUM 29 | 23 January 2026
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MEXICO - SIN | 11 - 17 January 2026
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Northwest transmission bottlenecks are driving negative prices
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 31.78/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 15% and 32.4% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2025, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 394/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Sanalona (Northwest) at USD -54.38/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +5.1%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -9.4%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -86.9%
- North (Moctezuma) -65.0%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.0%
- East (Temascal) +3.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +10.8%
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The weekly evolution of Local Marginal Prices (PML) across the seven MDA reference nodes shows a heterogeneous pattern, reflecting clear differences in regional supply conditions and congestion levels. Ticul registered the highest average price (USD 35.2/MWh), however, unlike previous weeks, its PML remained close to the underlying energy component. Victoria (USD 33.4/MWh), Temascal (USD 32.8/MWh), San Luis Potosí (USD 31.5/MWh), and Monterrey (USD 28.8/MWh) were aligned with the average Energy Component (USD 31.8/MWh), indicating limited impacts of congestion and losses. Conversely, Moctezuma (USD 11.1/MWh) and particularly Nacozari (USD 4.2/MWh) reported substantially lower prices, including episodes of negative pricing during solar hours. These outcomes reflect abundant local generation, low demand, and negative congestion driven by transmission constraints, as further detailed in the table below on weekly congested lines.
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 33.4/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 28.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 4.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 11.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 31.5/MWh
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Temascal
USD 32.8/MWh
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Ticul
USD 35.2/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 31.8/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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133
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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132
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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81
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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30
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Juarez - Chihuahua
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North
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17
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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9
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Enlace Laguna-Saltillo
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North - Northeast
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9
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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9
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 59.19 GWh (+14%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 21.46 GWh (-7.5%), compared to last week.
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 1.1/MWh and USD 1.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 2.55% from the previous week to 6.03 TW, while peak demand was 39.8 GW showing an increase of 3.65% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.45 pp, Legacy Contract +1.25 pp, Non dispatchable -0.41 pp, Hydro Power +0.8 pp and Renewable -1.18 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 17.8 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.56%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3/MMBtu, increasing by 3.09%. During this week, natural gas markets have shown limited directional movement, as updated weather forecasts point to generally mild conditions across most U.S. demand centers, reducing heating demand despite localized cold events. LNG exports remain strong and continue to underpin market fundamentals; however, ample domestic production and comfortable storage levels have constrained price volatility. Market participants are closely watching the latest storage data and short-term weather revisions, with current balances supporting a stable and well-supplied outlook in the near term.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +4.5%, +6.5%, and +5.8% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 60.12/bbl., USD 67/bbl., and USD 56.33/bbl. Crude markets have moved with a largely sideways to slightly firmer tone this week, as ongoing discussions around OPEC+ production discipline and supply compliance have provided underlying support. This has been partially offset by signs of resilient non-OPEC supply and lingering concerns over the pace of global demand growth, particularly amid mixed macroeconomic signals from major consuming regions. Market sentiment remains cautious, with participants closely monitoring geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data releases, as short-term price dynamics continue to reflect a balance between supply-side management efforts and uncertain demand fundamentals.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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