|
|
VOL 8 | NUM 28 | 16 January 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MEXICO - SIN | 4 - 10 January 2026
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regional Price Divergence Intensifies Amid Higher Energy Component
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 37.41/MWh.
|
|
The Energy Component was 111% higher from the previous week and 1% lower than the same week in 2025, ranging between USD 6.9/MWh and USD 179.89/MWh.
|
|
The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 373/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Sanalona (Northwest) at USD -51.95/MWh.
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
|
- Central (Victoria) +6.0%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -19.5%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -88.6%
- North (Moctezuma) -74.6%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.3%
- East (Temascal) +15.2%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +52.2%
|
|
The weekly evolution of Local Marginal Prices (PML) in the Day-Ahead Market reflects broadly stable conditions across most of the seven reference nodes, with price dynamics closely following the system energy component, which averaged USD 37.4/MWh over the week. A notable exception occurred on Friday, when the energy component increased markedly because of reduced wind generation. Throughout the week, Victoria, San Luis Potosí, Monterrey, and Temascal remained closely aligned, exhibiting only moderate intraday fluctuations because the balanced operating conditions and limited congestion in these regions. In contrast, Ticul stood out during Thursday and early Friday recording sharp spikes that significantly exceeded the rest of the nodes, likely associated with congestion events in the peninsular region. Meanwhile, Nacozari and Moctezuma consistently registered lower prices over the week, reflecting sustained negative congestion conditions driven by strong renewable generation in the northern region.
|
|
Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Victoria
USD 39.7/MWh
|
|
Monterrey
USD 30.1/MWh
|
|
Nacozari
USD 4.3/MWh
|
|
Moctezuma
USD 9.5/MWh
|
|
|
S. L. Potosí
USD 36.9/MWh
|
|
Temascal
USD 43.1/MWh
|
|
Ticul
USD 56.9/MWh
|
|
Energy Component
USD 37.4/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hours
|
Transmission Link
|
Region
|
|
129
|
Culiacan - Mazatlan
|
Northwest
|
|
115
|
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
|
East
|
|
103
|
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
|
North
|
|
27
|
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
|
Northeast
|
|
26
|
Juarez - Chihuahua
|
North
|
|
22
|
Ramos Arizpe - Primero de Mayo
|
West
|
|
11
|
Camargo - La Laguna
|
North
|
|
|
Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 21.68 GWh (-5.1%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 19.68 GWh (+6.9%), compared to last week.
|
|
Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 3.2/MWh and USD 8.2/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
|
|
Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price*
|
Wind Price*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
|
|
|
|
|
Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +2.9 pp, Legacy Contract -2.64 pp, Non dispatchable -0.86 pp, Hydro Power +0.32 pp and Renewable +0.27 pp.
|
|
Planned generation mix
|
|
|
|
|
Planned variation
|
|
|
|
|
Planned demand in the MDA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 17.9 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
|
|
Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.82/MMBtu, decreasing by 33.65%. During this week, prices have stabilized slightly above USD 3/MMBtu, supported by short-term cold weather forecasts in parts of the United States and steady LNG export flows, although gains remain limited by high domestic production and storage levels that are still above historical averages. Market participants continue to monitor upcoming storage reports, as inventories are expected to remain comfortable, reinforcing a cautiously balanced outlook in the near term.
|
|
WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1%, +1.3%, and -2.5% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 58.1/bbl., USD 63/bbl., and USD 52.82/bbl. Currently, crude prices have traded with a mild upward bias, supported by expectations of tighter supply management from OPEC+ and a slight slowdown in U.S. drilling activity, while gains remain capped by high global inventories and a cautious demand outlook. Market sentiment continues to balance geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainty, with analysts noting that short-term volatility is likely to persist as markets await clearer signals on global demand growth and production discipline.
|
|
Map
|
|
|
|
|
International indexes
|
|
|
|
|
The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
|
DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
