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VOL 8 | NUM 27 | 9 January 2026
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MEXICO - SIN | 28 December - 3 January 2026
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Happy New Year to our subscribers! | Starting the year with key insights on power, gas, and oil markets
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 17.69/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 19% and 16.4% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2025, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 381/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Maniobras La Lucha (North) at USD -14.81/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +5.0%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -10.8%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -75.5%
- North (Moctezuma) -69.3%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -2.1%
- East (Temascal) +6.6%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +30.2%
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The weekly trend of Local Marginal Prices (PML) in the Day-Ahead Market exhibited overall stability across the seven reference nodes, with most locations closely aligned to the system energy component, which averaged USD 17.7/MWh. Nodes such as Victoria, S.L. Potosí, and Temascal remained near the system average throughout the week, reflecting balanced conditions in those regions. Conversely, Ticul recorded the highest prices and experienced brief but significant spike early in the week due to congestion in the southeastern zone. In contrast, northern nodes Nacozari and Moctezuma consistently posted lower prices, primarily driven by negative congestion resulting from high solar generation in those areas. As in previous years, on January 1st, Local Marginal Prices dropped to zero during solar hours due to reduced system demand.
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 18.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 15.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 4.3/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 5.4/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 17.3/MWh
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Temascal
USD 18.9/MWh
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Ticul
USD 23.0/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 17.7/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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115
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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73
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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72
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Juarez - Chihuahua
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North
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60
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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12
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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12
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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11
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Enlace Laguna-Saltillo
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North - Northeast
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8
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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7
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Ixtepec a Juile 2-12
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East
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 86.77 GWh (-19.6%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 16.35 GWh, compared to last week (-5.7%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.1/MWh and USD 4/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 3.4% from the previous week to 5.12 TW, while peak demand was 0 GW showing a decrease of 100% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.13 pp, Legacy Contract -0.84 pp, Non dispatchable +1.46 pp, Hydro Power +0.05 pp and Renewable -0.79 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 17.9 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.25/MMBtu, increasing by 23.07%. Recent market data indicate that prices have since eased toward the low-to-mid USD 3/MMBtu range, driven by milder weather forecasts and sustained high production levels, which have reduced immediate heating demand expectations. Although seasonal storage withdrawals continue, inventories remain at comfortable levels, limiting upward pressure. Analysts suggest that a return of colder weather later in the winter, combined with steady LNG export activity, could provide short-term support, even as current fundamentals point to a more balanced market.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -0.8%, -1.7%, and -1.1% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 57.54/bbl., USD 62.18/bbl., and USD 54.15/bbl. Recent trading places WTI and Brent modestly higher amid early-2026 conditions, though concerns over ample global supply and moderate demand growth continue to weigh on sentiment. Expectations of slightly lower U.S. drilling activity and continued OPEC+ production discipline have helped stabilize prices, while high inventory levels keep volatility elevated. Market analysts maintain that, if global economic conditions gradually stabilize, demand could strengthen later in 2026, supporting a potential recovery toward year-end despite ongoing short-term fluctuations.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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