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VOL 8 | NUM 24 | 19 December 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 7 - 13 December 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Energy Prices Ease, but Regional Extremes Persist in Mexico’s Day-Ahead Market
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 50.34/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 6% lower from the previous week and 62.6% higher than the same week in 2024, ranging between USD 28.22/MWh and USD 99.2/MWh.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Xcalacoco (Peninsular) at USD 754/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Las Delicias (West) at USD -76.69/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +9.6%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -15.8%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -80.9%
- North (Moctezuma) -69.7%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -5.2%
- East (Temascal) +14.6%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +168.6%
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The weekly evolution of Local Marginal Prices (PML) in the Day-Ahead Market highlighted pronounced regional disparities. While the system-wide energy component averaged USD 50.3/MWh, nodes in the Peninsular region—such as Ticul—registered significantly higher prices, averaging USD 135.2/MWh and reaching peaks approaching USD 700/MWh, primarily due to severe congestion in the southern international interconnections. Temascal and Victoria were close to system average throughout the week because the congestion and losses exerted a comparatively moderate influence on prices at those nodes. In contrast, nodes in the North and Northwest, including Nacozari (USD 9.6/MWh) and Moctezuma (USD 15.2/MWh), experienced persistently low—and occasionally negative—prices driven by sustained negative congestion.
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 55.2/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 42.4/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 9.6/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 15.2/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 47.7/MWh
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Temascal
USD 57.7/MWh
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Ticul
USD 135.2/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 50.3/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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107
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Juarez - Chihuahua
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North
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86
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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54
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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43
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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42
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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23
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 99.15 GWh (+31.6%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 34.1 GWh, compared to last week (+12.8%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.6/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 4/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 2.3% from the previous week to 5.95 TW, while peak demand was 39.2 GW showing a decrease of 1.01% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -1.76 pp, Legacy Contract +1.94 pp, Non dispatchable +0.33 pp, Hydro Power -1.54 pp and Renewable +1.04 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.1 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.55%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.6/MMBtu, decreasing by 7.48%. Weather models indicate colder patterns toward late December, which could boost residential and commercial consumption. Although storage levels remain comfortable and production is high, the combination of weather conditions and robust export activity suggests potential price strengthening in the short term.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -2%, -2.2%, and -1.6% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 58.3/bbl., USD 62.6/bbl., and USD 54.87/bbl. A slight reduction in U.S. drilling activity raised expectations of lower future supply, while high inventories and OPEC+ production discipline continue to shape market dynamics. Analysts project that, with a potential stabilization of global economic conditions, demand could gradually recover in 2026, prompting investors to consider higher price levels toward year-end despite short-term volatility.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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