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VOL 8 | NUM 23 | 12 December 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 30 November - 6 December 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Renewable Drop Drives Price Surge; Gas Gains Momentum, Oil Holds Steady
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 53.82/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 25% and 89.7% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Chetumal Norte (Peninsular) at USD 824/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -71.78/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +22.5%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -15.8%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -65.9%
- North (Moctezuma) -49.8%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +0.7%
- East (Temascal) +41.8%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +54.9%
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The weekly evolution of Local Marginal Prices (PML) in the Day-Ahead Market showed significant regional disparities. While the system’s energy component averaged USD 53.8/MWh, nodes in the Peninsular and East regions posted the highest prices, with Ticul at USD 83.4/MWh and Temascal at USD 76.3/MWh on average reflecting strong congestion effects. In contrast, the North and Northwest regions experienced the lowest prices, such as Nacozari at USD 18.4/MWh and Moctezuma at USD 27.0/MWh on average, driven by persistent negative congestion. The energy component was significantly impacted by a reduction in renewable generation caused by Cold Front 17. This decline in renewable output led to increased thermal dispatch, altering the energy component’s behavior from Thursday through Saturday.
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 65.9/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 45.3/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 18.4/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 27.0/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 54.2/MWh
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Temascal
USD 76.3/MWh
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Ticul
USD 83.4/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 53.8/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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58
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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51
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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50
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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44
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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30
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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29
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Mazatlan 400 KV - Mazatlan 230-115 KV
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Northwest
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21
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Choacahui de 400 - 230 KV
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 243.98 GWh (-77.8%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 42.12 GWh, compared to last week (-15.8%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 2.9/MWh and USD 6.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 2.09% from the previous week to 6.09 TW, while peak demand was 39.6 GW showing a decrease of 4.12% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +5.43 pp, Legacy Contract -2.85 pp, Non dispatchable +0.32 pp, Hydro Power -0.57 pp and Renewable -2.34 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.2 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 1.09%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.97/MMBtu, increasing by 15.94%. This rebound was driven by expectations of stronger winter demand and steady LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) export flows, which refer to natural gas cooled to a liquid state for easier storage and transportation overseas. Weather models indicate colder patterns toward late December, which could boost residential and commercial consumption. Despite comfortable storage levels and high production, these factors, combined with robust export activity, suggest potential price strengthening in the near term.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1.4%, -0.6%, and -0.4% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 59.48/bbl., USD 63.98/bbl., and USD 55.59/bbl. Respectively, this week, market sentiment was influenced by a slight reduction in U.S. drilling activity, which raised expectations of lower future supply. Analysts note that while inventories remain high and OPEC+ continues to enforce production discipline, some forecasts anticipate a gradual demand recovery in 2026 as global economic conditions stabilize. These factors have led investors to cautiously consider higher price levels toward year-end, even as short-term volatility persists.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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