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VOL 8 | NUM 22 | 5 December 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 23 - 29 November 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Falling Energy Component, Extreme Node Prices, and Winter Gas Pressure
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 43.13/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 10% lower from the previous week and 45.1% higher than the same week in 2024, ranging between USD 0/MWh and USD 113.49/MWh.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 812/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Comedero (Northwest) at USD -10.9/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +5.6%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -17.0%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -71.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -63.3%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -2.2%
- East (Temascal) +5.5%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +13.2%
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The reduction in wind generation, which began on Monday night and persisted through Tuesday, led to an increase in the energy component. Consequently, local marginal prices rose significantly across most regions, except for the north and northwestern areas, where high negative congestion mitigated these effects.
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 45.5/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 35.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 12.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 15.8/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 42.2/MWh
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Temascal
USD 45.5/MWh
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Ticul
USD 48.8/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 43.1/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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85
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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83
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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77
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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65
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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36
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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32
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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22
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Ixtepec a Juile 2-12
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East
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15
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Choacahui de 400 - 230 KV
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 165.68 GWh (+42.3%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 17.45 GWh (-5.6%), compared to last week.
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 2.2/MWh and USD 4.4/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 100% from the previous week to 0 TW, while peak demand was 41.3 GW showing a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -2.22 pp, Legacy Contract +2.16 pp, Non dispatchable +0.37 pp, Hydro Power -0.55 pp and Renewable +0.23 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.4 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.29/MMBtu, increasing by 10.2%. This rebound was driven by expectations of stronger winter demand and steady LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) export flows, which refer to natural gas cooled to a liquid state for easier storage and transportation overseas. Weather models indicate colder patterns toward late December, which could boost residential and commercial consumption. Despite comfortable storage levels and high production, these factors, combined with robust export activity, suggest potential price strengthening in the near term.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -2.7%, +1.2%, and -1.4% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 58.69/bbl., USD 64.38/bbl., and USD 55.79/bbl. This week, analysts highlight that December trading remains subdued, but expectations for 2026 are shaping market sentiment. A Reuters survey suggests Brent could average around USD 62/bbl next year, signaling cautious optimism despite current oversupply. Meanwhile, short-term forecasts from the EIA point to stable or slightly lower crude prices through early 2026, as inventories remain high and OPEC+ (a coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, including Russia) output discipline continues to weigh on volatility.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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