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VOL 8 | NUM 21 | 28 November 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 16 - 22 November 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Lower Renewables and Network Constraints Drive Weekly Price Behavior
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 48.13/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 44% and 110.5% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 627/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Mazatlan Dos (Northwest) at USD -65.98/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 23.09/MWh and USD 130.68/MWh. The energy component increased late Thursday and Friday due to reduced renewable generation. Congestion patterns varied: the West region aligned closely with the system’s energy component, while the North and Northwest experienced persistent negative congestion and the lowest prices. Conversely, congestion in the Peninsular and East regions increased PML throughout the week.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +9.2%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -25.7%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -84.4%
- North (Moctezuma) -81.8%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.6%
- East (Temascal) +15.4%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +25.4%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 52.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 35.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 7.5/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 8.8/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 47.4/MWh
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Temascal
USD 55.5/MWh
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Ticul
USD 60.3/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 48.1/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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155
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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102
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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78
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Mazatlan 400 KV - Mazatlan 230-115 KV
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Northwest
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58
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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49
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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47
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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40
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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31
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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26
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 157.48 GWh (-40.2%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 25.66 GWh, compared to last week (-7.9%).
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Wind captured price was USD 1.5/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 6.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 0.16% from the previous week to 6.16 TW, while peak demand was 41.4 GW showing an increase of 3.76% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +4.28 pp, Legacy Contract -2.74 pp, Non dispatchable -0.45 pp, Hydro Power -0.37 pp and Renewable -0.7 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.4 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.89/MMBtu, increasing by 7.38%. Henry Hub natural gas prices showed a modest rebound this week, supported by expectations of stronger winter demand and steadier conditions in the global LNG market. Although storage levels remain comfortable and production is high, weather models point to colder patterns developing toward late December, potentially boosting residential and commercial consumption. These factors, along with a slight uptick in export activity, led some market participants to anticipate potential price strengthening in the near term.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +0.2%, +1.2%, and +0.1% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 60.27/bbl., USD 63.64/bbl., and USD 56.95/bbl. Although oil markets face uncertainty due to abundant supply, this week some signals emerged that could support a moderate price recovery. On one hand, temporary reductions in U.S. drilling activity raised expectations of lower future supply. Moreover, assuming a stabilization of the global economy certain forecasts point to a gradual demand rebound in 2026, which could absorb part of the current surplus. In that scenario, investors are beginning to consider higher price levels toward year-end, potentially supporting Brent and WTI benchmarks.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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