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VOL 8 | NUM 2 | 21 July 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 6 - 12 July 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Higher than normal congestion in the South; CFE inaugurated a new power plant
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 28.98/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 2% and 42.5% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Candelaria Dos (Peninsular) at USD 739/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Laredo Americano at USD -2.68/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 20.15/MWh and USD 67.13/MWh. Driven by last week’s surge in demand and the aftermath of Hurricane Erick, the Peninsular and Eastern regions experienced above-average congestion, contributing up to USD 50/MWh solely from this component in Ticul’s node price — accounting for approximately 57% of its LMP. The rest of the system's LMPs remained largely aligned with the energy component, except for the Central node, which recorded abrupt price spikes on Friday and Saturday during peak demand hours. Moreover, the utility company CFE launched operations for a Combine Cycle power plant of 437 MW, Villa de Reyes, the last 5th of July.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +15.3%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +1.2%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -13.5%
- North (Moctezuma) -14.5%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +1.9%
- East (Temascal) +74.2%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +193.0%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 33.4/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 29.3/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 25.1/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 24.8/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 29.5/MWh
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Temascal
USD 50.5/MWh
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Ticul
USD 84.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 29.0/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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159 |
Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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93 |
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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67 |
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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64 |
Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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53 |
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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31 |
Malpaso - Tabasco
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East
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20 |
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 55.82 GWh (+16.4%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 15.45 GWh, compared to last week (+3.9%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.3/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 2.1/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 3.2% from the previous week to 7.42 TW, while peak demand was 46.1 GW showing an increase of 1.54% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.21 pp, Legacy Contract +0.06 pp, Non dispatchable -0.93 pp, Hydro Power -0.06 pp and Renewable +0.72 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.6 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.53%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.17/MMBtu, decreasing by 0.47%.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +2.5%, +3.1%, and +3.1% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 69.15/bbl., USD 71.77/bbl., and USD 64.28/bbl. Oil prices showed a slight weekly gain after the U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on most countries, as the White House extended the decision deadline to August.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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