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VOL 8 | NUM 16 | 24 October 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 12 - 18 October 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Congestion Between Regions East and Peninsular Drives Higher Prices
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 27.31/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 9% lower from the previous week and 3.8% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Puerto Morelos (Peninsular) at USD 916/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -54.43/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 10.21/MWh and USD 68.78/MWh. Corridor SIN – Escarcega presented a high marginal cost, while Corridor Cozumel not only showed a high marginal cost but also a high frequency of congestion hours throughout the week. This situation led to elevated prices in the East and Peninsular regions, particularly toward the end of the week. Nationwide rainfall contributed to a decrease in electricity demand during this period. In the energy mix, the contributions from Hydro and Wind power sources remained stable, while Solar power increased its output. The West region recorded prices similar to the system’s reference price, excluding losses and congestion effects.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +51.8%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -8.3%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -70.8%
- North (Moctezuma) -68.1%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +0.1%
- East (Temascal) +140.6%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +203.6%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 41.5/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 25.1/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 8.0/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 8.7/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 27.4/MWh
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Temascal
USD 65.7/MWh
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Ticul
USD 82.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 27.3/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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142
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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136
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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113
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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92
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Cumbres Frontera (Mexico) - Rail Road (USA)
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Northeast
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79
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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72
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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40
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Queretaro - Tula
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West
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39
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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33
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 3.08 GWh (+1%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 54.65 GWh, compared to last week (+16.5%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.3/MWh and USD 3.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 3.76% from the previous week to 6.66 TW, while peak demand was 43.4 GW showing a decrease of 3.56% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -1.02 pp, Legacy Contract +0.41 pp, Non dispatchable -0.41 pp, Hydro Power -0.23 pp and Renewable +1.26 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.5 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 0.54%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.8/MMBtu, decreasing by 13.32%. Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub declined as market conditions reflected strong supply and moderate demand. High storage levels and steady production signaled a well-balanced market with no short-term supply concerns. Milder weather reduced heating needs and power generation from gas. In addition, market participants adjusted expectations downward amid stable fundamentals, leading to softer price levels overall.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -5.6%, -6.9%, and -5.2% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 58.8/bbl., USD 62.36/bbl., and USD 55.54/bbl. Global oil prices for Brent, WTI, and MME declined notably due to a combination of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. Increased production from OPEC+ and other major producers contributed to a supply surplus, while U.S. crude inventories rose and refinery utilization fell. Tensions between the U.S. and China also weighed on demand expectations, creating uncertainty in the market. Additionally, the recent ceasefire in Gaza reduced geopolitical risk, lowering the risk premium in oil prices. A stronger U.S. dollar further pressured prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies. Overall, these factors created a well-supplied market environment, resulting in lower crude benchmarks across the board.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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