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VOL 8 | NUM 15 | 17 October 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 5 - 11 October 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Influence of Declining Renewable Energy and Demand Stability on the Rise of Local Marginal Prices
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 29.9/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 15% higher from the previous week and 1.7% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 586/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Donato Guerra (Center) at USD -40.55/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 12.5/MWh and USD 89.79/MWh. The price broke its four-week downward trend and rose by 15% compared to the previous week. Demand decreased moderately, reaching levels close to last year. Solar generation continues to decline, while wind generation is increasing. On Sunday at 20 hours, the highest price was recorded in almost all regions, except for the East and Peninsular ones. The West Management reported no losses or congestion. As in September, the highest hourly price of the month occurred at 20 hours, unlike in previous months when it was at 21 hours; the lowest was at 12 hours.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +17.4%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +1.4%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -75.1%
- North (Moctezuma) -74.9%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +0.3%
- East (Temascal) +27.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +175.4%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 35.1/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 30.3/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 7.5/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 7.5/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 30.0/MWh
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Temascal
USD 38.0/MWh
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Ticul
USD 82.3/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 29.9/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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149
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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141
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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123
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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99
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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97
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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53
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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34
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Enlace Laguna-Saltillo
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North - Northeast
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31
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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28
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Queretaro - Tula
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West
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 48.91 GWh (+18.7%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 53.5 GWh (-16.2%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.5/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 4.7/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 1.28% from the previous week to 6.92 TW, while peak demand was 45 GW showing a decrease of 0.22% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.29 pp, Legacy Contract +0.05 pp, Non dispatchable -1.01 pp, Hydro Power +1.54 pp and Renewable -0.3 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.4 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.23/MMBtu, increasing by 2.15%. This moderate growth indicates a market stabilization following a week of higher volatility. Factors such as seasonal demand, storage levels, and weather conditions may have influenced this mild rise, reflecting a gradual recovery trend without sharp price movements.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -0.8%, -0.8%, and -0.9% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 62.1/bbl., USD 66.65/bbl., and USD 58.98/bbl. This moderate decrease indicates some market pressure, possibly due to rising inventories, concerns about global demand, or geopolitical uncertainties. Despite this decline, prices remain relatively stable, reflecting a temporary balance between supply and demand in the oil market.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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