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VOL 8 | NUM 14 | 10 October 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 28 September - 4 October 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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High congestion between Macuspana Dos and Escarcega increases prices in Peninsular Region
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 25.94/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 9% and 23.5% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 740/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Maniobras La Lucha (North) at USD -6.89/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 11.36/MWh and USD 67/MWh. Northwest and North regions had negative congestion that reduced the prices in those regions. Also, Central, East, West and Northeast had low congestion during the week and maintained similar prices following the energy component trend. However, the congestion in Peninsular region caused high prices mostly during the night hours, excepting on Thursday. In that day, the congestion for Peninsular region reached high levels including in solar hours. This was mainly because of the congestion in transmission lines between Macuspana Dos (Tabasco) and Escarcega (Campeche), those were congested for 71 hours representing 42% of the week time.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +15.1%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +1.7%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -80.3%
- North (Moctezuma) -80.3%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +0.1%
- East (Temascal) +22.6%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +338.0%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 29.9/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 26.4/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 5.1/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 5.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 26.0/MWh
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Temascal
USD 31.8/MWh
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Ticul
USD 113.6/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 25.9/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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154
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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132
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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131
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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131
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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71
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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63
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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60
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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28
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Queretaro - Tula
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West
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 49.39 GWh (+23.3%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 7.15 GWh (-1.9%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.7/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 2.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 3.71% from the previous week to 7.01 TW, while peak demand was 45.1 GW showing a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -1.53 pp, Legacy Contract +1.26 pp, Non dispatchable +0.31 pp, Hydro Power +0.02 pp and Renewable -0.06 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.4 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.16/MMBtu, increasing by 8.82%. The inventories of natural gas were lower than expected after the release of the EIA report, also, winter is approaching which made the markets react to those variables increasing the Henry Hub price compared to previous week. However, the Local Marginal Prices didn’t increase mainly because hydropower is taking an important role in the dispatch and the price set.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -3.6%, -3.1%, and -4.9% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 62.59/bbl., USD 67.15/bbl., and USD 59.91/bbl. Potential increases in the supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporters Countries (OPEC) have contributed to decrease in the price of crude. Also, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may improve, allowing the aperture of projects that can contribute to the increase in the supply.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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