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VOL 8 | NUM 13 | 3 October 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 21 - 27 September 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Blackout in Peninsula increases prices
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 28.37/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 1% and 8.2% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 559/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Maniobras La Lucha (North) at USD -33.16/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 13.63/MWh and USD 123.65/MWh. On Friday 26th there was a blackout in the Peninsular region that lasted almost six and a half hours. The blackout affected Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo states caused by a maintenance of the Transmission Lines Escarcega-Ticul 400 kV. The power plants in that area went out of the system because of a problem with the Transmission Lines. The recovering was done gradually before the end of the day. On Saturday the Peninsular region experienced high congestion mainly because of the maintenance in the transmission lines and the works for the incident occurred the day before. Also, East region followed the behavior of the Peninsular region until the end of the day. On the opposite side, North and Northwest regions showed negative congestion at the beginning of the week during solar hours, decreasing the prices. This is related to the high congestion in the Transmission Lines from Los Mochis to Guamuchil in the Northwest area and the TLs from Chihuahua to Gómez Palacio.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +33.2%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +4.8%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -68.2%
- North (Moctezuma) -64.6%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +4.8%
- East (Temascal) +87.5%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +144.8%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 37.8/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 29.7/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 9.0/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 10.0/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 29.7/MWh
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Temascal
USD 53.2/MWh
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Ticul
USD 69.4/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 28.4/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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151
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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141
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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100
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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100
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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63
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Queretaro - Tula
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West
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54
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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47
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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35
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Texcoco-San Martin Potencia/San Lorenzo
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Central - West
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 86.76 GWh (-40.9%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 13.3 GWh (+3.5%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 1.1/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 5.2/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 4.9% from the previous week to 7.28 TW, while peak demand was 47.1 GW showing an increase of 6.08% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +3.63 pp, Legacy Contract -1.26 pp, Non dispatchable -0.56 pp, Hydro Power -1.43 pp and Renewable -0.37 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.4 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.9/MMBtu, decreasing by 4.79%. The high inventory of natural gas and the low Canadian prices have contributed to reduce the Henery Hub prices at the end of September. The trend is expected to be at similar levels in the coming months.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1.3%, +1.3%, and +1.3% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 64.83/bbl., USD 69.22/bbl., and USD 62.69/bbl. Geopolitical tensions have marked a rise in the oil price mainly because the Ukrainian attack to Russian facilities. The markets responded increasing prices because the reduction of Russian exports. The trend in the following weeks will depend on the Russian bans to exports.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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