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VOL 8 | NUM 12 | 26 September 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 14 - 20 September 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Low Prices in the North and Northwest Regions Caused by High Negative Congestion
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 28.77/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 8% lower from the previous week and 17% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Akimpech (Peninsular) at USD 681/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -36.29/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 19.15/MWh and USD 94.87/MWh. Congestion in the peninsular region was reduced, leading to lower prices in the southern part of the country. Similarly, in the North and Northwest regions, negative congestion increased, causing prices to fall in those areas. The West and Northeast regions-maintained prices like the reference energy component, which was 28.8 USD/MWh. Most regions experienced their highest prices on Wednesday during peak hours. On average, the hourly prices for September are 10% lower than those in August. Renewable generation increased its contribution during this rainy season, mainly due to hydroelectric power generation.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +22.5%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +2.3%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -71.4%
- North (Moctezuma) -65.0%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +1.4%
- East (Temascal) +38.4%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +91.7%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 35.2/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 29.4/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 8.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 10.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 29.2/MWh
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Temascal
USD 39.8/MWh
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Ticul
USD 55.2/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 28.8/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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165
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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146
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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95
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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85
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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74
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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51
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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35
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Queretaro - Tula
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West
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 21.42 GWh (+7.7%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 10.13 GWh (-2.7%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.8/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 3.9/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 5.19% from the previous week to 6.94 TW, while peak demand was 44.4 GW showing a decrease of 4.31% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -2.84 pp, Legacy Contract +0.31 pp, Non dispatchable -0.26 pp, Hydro Power +2.51 pp and Renewable +0.27 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.4 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 1.08%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.05/MMBtu, increasing by 3.18%. This variation is mainly attributed to a slight increase in electricity demand and adjustments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Although inventories remain above historical averages, prices showed some seasonal pressure. Daily prices stayed within a stable range, between $2.89 and $3.19 USD/MMBtu.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1.5%, +1.6%, and +1.5% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 63.98/bbl., USD 68.33/bbl., and USD 62.13/bbl. The prices of this week reflecting slight upward pressure driven by moderate expectations of global demand recovery and adjustments in OPEC+ production levels. Despite high global inventories, prices remained within normal ranges. The price differences among the benchmarks are justified by factors such as crude quality, export logistics, and local fiscal conditions. These values are consistent with market conditions and technically valid for use in power generation cost analysis and operational planning.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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