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VOL 8 | NUM 11 | 19 September 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 7 - 13 September 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Increased hydroelectric contribution supports the stability of LMP in the SIN
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 31.28/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 9% lower from the previous week and 27.3% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Candelaria Dos (Peninsular) at USD 880/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Riviera Maya (Peninsular) at USD -41.82/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 19.17/MWh and USD 105.54/MWh. The average LMP this week decreased by 9% but remains 27% higher compared to last year. Demand this week dropped by 1.9% and stayed at levels similar to the previous year. The minimum and maximum average LMP of the week were recorded in the Riviera Maya and Campeche zones of the Peninsular region. High congestion in the southern regions of the country causes prices to be three times higher than those in the northern regions. Wind generation recovered by 27% this week and, together with an increase in hydroelectric generation, helped keep prices stable throughout the week
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +24.1%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +2.6%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -47.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -45.4%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +1.9%
- East (Temascal) +47.6%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +191.1%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 38.8/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 32.1/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 16.4/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 17.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 31.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 46.2/MWh
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Ticul
USD 91.0/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 31.3/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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157
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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122
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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116
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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113
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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77
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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48
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Malpaso - Tabasco
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East
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42
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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33
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Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
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Peninsular
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19
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Guaymas - Obregon
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Northwest
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18
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Enlace Laguna-Saltillo
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North - Northeast
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 59.64 GWh (+27.4%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 17.3 GWh, compared to last week (+4.7%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.9/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 4.7/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 1.74% from the previous week to 7.32 TW, while peak demand was 46.4 GW showing a decrease of 1.69% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -2.98 pp, Legacy Contract +0.79 pp, Non dispatchable -0.13 pp, Hydro Power +1.92 pp and Renewable +0.4 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.6 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.53%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.96/MMBtu, decreasing by 0.3%. Henry Hub gas prices showed a slight downward trend, starting at USD 3.10/MMBtu and falling to USD 2.81 before closing at USD 2.86. This decline was mainly driven by high storage levels and lower seasonal demand as summer ended. Steady production and moderate temperatures reduced pressure on prices. However, strong LNG exports helped prevent a sharper drop. The market also began anticipating higher winter demand, which limited further declines. Overall, prices reflected a balanced market with mild oversupply signals
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -1.6%, +0.6%, and -1.4% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 63.06/bbl., USD 67.23/bbl., and USD 61.16/bbl. Brent, WTI, and the Mexican Export Blend (MME) crude oil prices showed mild fluctuations, with a midweek dip followed by a partial recovery. The market was influenced by an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, which created downward pressure—especially on WTI. Additionally, expectations surrounding upcoming OPEC+ decisions and signs of weaker global demand contributed to price volatility. Brent ranged between USD 65.4 and 67.9, WTI between 62.6 and 64.0, and MME between 60.6 and 62.0 USD per barrel, generally following the dynamics of international markets
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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