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VOL 8 | NUM 10 | 12 September 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 31 August - 6 September 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Stable LMP Driven by Steady Demand and Increased Hydroelectric Generation
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 34.31/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 8% and 33.9% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Chetumal Norte (Peninsular) at USD 694/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -46.38/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 16.69/MWh and USD 129.59/MWh. The average LMP increased by 8% this week, while demand decreased by only 0.5%. Prices in the northern and central nodes were approximately one-third and one-half, respectively, of those in the southern region. Congestion remains the main driver of high prices in the south: in Ticul, it accounts for 56% of the LMP, compared to 7% in Monterrey. Wind generation dropped by 44%, while hydroelectric generation increased its share by 2 percentage points. Despite these changes, energy prices remained relatively stable compared to the previous week.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +22.0%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +6.9%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -36.2%
- North (Moctezuma) -31.3%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +3.9%
- East (Temascal) +87.9%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +171.8%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 41.9/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 36.7/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 21.9/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 23.6/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 35.6/MWh
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Temascal
USD 64.5/MWh
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Ticul
USD 93.3/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 34.3/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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164
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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141
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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94
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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94
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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53
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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52
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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45
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Texcoco-San Martin Potencia/San Lorenzo
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Central - West
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34
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Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
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Peninsular
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28
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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25
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Malpaso - Tabasco
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East
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 173.85 GWh (-79.9%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 7.94 GWh, compared to last week (-2.1%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.9/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 5.2/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 0.53% from the previous week to 7.45 TW, while peak demand was 47.2 GW showing the same levels compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.15 pp, Legacy Contract -1.52 pp, Non dispatchable +0.56 pp, Hydro Power +1.92 pp and Renewable -0.81 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.7 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 0.54%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.97/MMBtu, increasing by 4.11%. During this week, natural gas prices showed a slight upward trend. Although inventories increased more than expected, industrial demand and international exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) remained strong. Warmer weather reduced residential consumption but had little impact on overall energy use. Additionally, new long-term export agreements strengthened market expectations. Overall, these factors supported price growth despite the rise in reserves.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -0.7%, -1.4%, and -1.4% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 64.09/bbl., USD 66.85/bbl., and USD 61.99/bbl. This trend was driven by concerns over a potential supply surplus, particularly due to projected production increases from OPEC+ and Russia, along with weakening demand in the United States. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks—such as tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on Russian oil—the market remained under pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and signs of economic slowdown. Overall, prices reflected a market seeking balance, with technical support but lacking momentum for a sustained recovery.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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