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VOL 8 | NUM 1 | 14 July 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 29 June - 5 July 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Wind generation plunged by ~40%
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 29/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 2% and 30.8% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Chetumal Norte (Peninsular) at USD 709/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Riviera Maya (Peninsular) at USD -28.02/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 22.98/MWh and USD 76.11/MWh. For the third consecutive week, demand declined, primarily driven by subdued cooling needs and the ongoing rainy season. Congestion once again impacted the Ticul price—the Peninsular reference node—and also influenced price trends in Temascal, contributing to heightened volatility across the region. Additionally, one of the transmission links in the Central region ranked among the most congested of the week, leading to price decoupling from the Energy Component, particularly on Tuesday and Friday. Furthermore, a sharp drop in wind generation pushed overall price ranges downward, even resulting in negative prices in the Northwest and North regions around midday on Sunday.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +13.3%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -0.4%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -27.5%
- North (Moctezuma) -29.9%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +0.5%
- East (Temascal) +58.0%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +139.5%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 33.4/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 29.4/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 21.4/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 20.7/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 29.6/MWh
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Temascal
USD 46.6/MWh
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Ticul
USD 70.6/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 29.5/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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151 |
Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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74 |
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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72 |
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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63 |
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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49 |
Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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28 |
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 128.23 GWh (-37.6%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 8.3 GWh (+2.2%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.3/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 1.3/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 0.83% from the previous week to 7.19 TW, while peak demand was 45.4 GW showing a decrease of 1.73% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -2.52 pp, Legacy Contract -1.04 pp, Non dispatchable +2.9 pp, Hydro Power +0.67 pp and Renewable -0 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 18.7 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 1.58%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.19/MMBtu, decreasing by 3.6%. Discrepancies between production and demand put pressure on Natural Gas prices, where storage levels 6.3% above the last 5 years average.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1%, -0.5%, and +0.6% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 67.43/bbl., USD 69.61/bbl., and USD 62.37/bbl. Oil prices stabilized after tensions in the Middle East eased. Nevertheless, U.S. talks with Vietnam regarding trading tariffs, and Iran's announcement that it would no cooperate with UN nuclear supervision impacted prices, causing an average increase of $2/bbl from Wednesday to Thursday.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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