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VOL 7 | NUM 52 | 7 July 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 22 - 28 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Oil benchmarks fall for a third straight week, deepening price slide
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 30/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 12% and 56.2% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Mahahual (Peninsular) at USD 700/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in El Sauz (West) at USD -38.87/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 0/MWh and USD 94.3/MWh. Last Sunday saw atypical market behavior driven by solar congestion, which pushed reference node prices into a narrow range of USD 20–30/MWh from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
In particular, Ticul experienced elevated congestion costs from Sunday through Tuesday, with these charges accounting for approximately 38% of its total energy price. However, prices in the region realigned with the broader system later in the week.
Additionally, Legacy Contract offers posted the most significant increase of the week, rising by 1.7 percentage points.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +21.3%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +1.9%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -19.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -17.7%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +2.4%
- East (Temascal) +39.8%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +151.5%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 36.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 30.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 24.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 24.8/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 30.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 42.2/MWh
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Ticul
USD 75.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 30.2/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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146 |
Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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86 |
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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55 |
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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34 |
Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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33 |
Malpaso - Tabasco
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East
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24 |
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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21 |
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 89.16 GWh (+23.4%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 21.04 GWh (-5.5%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 1.2/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 2.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 100% from the previous week to 0 TW, while peak demand was 46.2 GW showing a decrease of 5.33% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.98 pp, Legacy Contract +1.66 pp, Non dispatchable -0.7 pp, Hydro Power -0.15 pp and Renewable +0.16 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 19 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.3/MMBtu, increasing by 7.27%. Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel are fueling increased volatility in global gas markets, driving prices sharply higher
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -12.2%, -11.8%, and -11.9% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 66.78/bbl., USD 69.96/bbl., and USD 61.99/bbl. On June 23, Tehran’s retaliatory strike on a U.S. base in Qatar triggered Brent’s largest single-day drop since July 2022. Downward pressure deepened after June 24, as reports of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel strengthened expectations of uninterrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passageway for around 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products daily.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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