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VOL 7 | NUM 51 | 30 June 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 15 - 21 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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The Energy Component hit USD 0/MWh
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 34/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 11% and 71.4% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 638/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in El Sauz (West) at USD -70.43/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 0/MWh and USD 97.52/MWh. The Northern, Western, and Central reference node prices remained closely coupled, showing only minor variations throughout the week. However, an exception occurred on Saturday, when the Energy Component dropped to USD 0/MWh at 8:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m.—a dip potentially influenced by reduced wind generation during those hours. Despite rising fossil fuel prices, overall energy prices declined, driven by lower electricity demand.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +32.8%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +0.6%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -19.0%
- North (Moctezuma) -8.8%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +1.5%
- East (Temascal) +52.9%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +143.8%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 45.7/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 34.6/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 27.9/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 31.4/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 34.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 52.6/MWh
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Ticul
USD 83.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 34.4/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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148 |
Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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57 |
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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36 |
Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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36 |
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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34 |
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 7.64 GWh (-2%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 46.35 GWh, compared to last week (-11.5%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.1/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 4.1/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 2.56% from the previous week to 7.6 TW, while peak demand was 48.8 GW showing a decrease of 1.01% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.13 pp, Legacy Contract +0.25 pp, Non dispatchable +0.32 pp, Hydro Power +0.01 pp and Renewable -0.69 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 19 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.08/MMBtu, increasing by 8.45%. Last week, rising cooling demand in the U.S. pushed natural gas prices higher. Additionally, following the airstrikes between Israel and Iran, damage to Iran's largest gas field further intensified market concerns, prompting European gas buyers and traders to drive prices up even more. Looking ahead, potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly 20% of global natural gas exports pass—could trigger a significant price surge in the coming weeks.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +9.2%, +10.1%, and +9.4% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 74.94/bbl., USD 78.25/bbl., and USD 69.05/bbl. Due to the climbing tensions in the Middle East, the United States launched targeted strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities (Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow) the last Saturday 22nd, leading to soaring oil prices due to uncertainty over Iran’s response and damage assessments.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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