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VOL 7 | NUM 50 | 23 June 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 8 - 14 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Congestion drove up prices in the Peninsular region, while tensions in the Middle East continued to put upward pressure on oil markets
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 39/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 20% higher from the previous week and 81.7% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Candelaria Dos (Peninsular) at USD 615/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -56.85/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 20.64/MWh and USD 164.71/MWh. Driven by the electric demand, energy prices surged last week. The Energy Component showed sharp peaks on Monday and Wednesday during nigh time caused mainly by high congestions levels. The reference node price in the Peninsular region (Ticul) showed congestion peaks on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday, decoupling from the range price of the rest of the system.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +55.1%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -1.6%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -40.4%
- North (Moctezuma) -30.8%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +2.4%
- East (Temascal) +133.7%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +213.8%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 60.3/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 38.2/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 23.1/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 26.9/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 39.8/MWh
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Temascal
USD 90.8/MWh
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Ticul
USD 121.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 38.8/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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157.0
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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128.0
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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66.0
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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38.0
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Escarcega 400 KV - Escarcega 230-115 KV
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Peninsular
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38.0
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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34.0
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 38.95 GWh (+11.2%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 12.73 GWh, compared to last week (+2.9%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.8/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 6.2/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 4% from the previous week to 7.8 TW, while peak demand was 49.3 GW showing an increase of 1.65% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.55 pp, Legacy Contract -0.05 pp, Non dispatchable -0.39 pp, Hydro Power -0.24 pp and Renewable +0.12 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 19 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 1.04%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.84/MMBtu, increasing by 0.14%. Henry Hub prices remained stable last week despite the attacks between Israel and Iran, even as natural gas futures saw an upswing on Monday driven by the escalation of tensions in the Middle East ocurred the previous Friday.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +7.1%, +5.8%, and +5% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 68.63/bbl., USD 71.05/bbl., and USD 61.95/bbl. In relation to the Israeli-Iranian conflict, JP Morgan noted that Brent could spike above $120 in a worst-case scenario, should tensions continue to rise. Moreover, with summer demand increasing and U.S. oil inventories staying low, prices are expected to show an upward trend.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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