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VOL 7 | NUM 49 | 16 June 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 1 - 7 June 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Cooling rains eased demand as well as energy prices. Israel-Iran conflict is impacting oil Markets
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 32/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 20% and 77.9% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Xcalacoco (Peninsular) at USD 802/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -45.28/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 21.84/MWh and USD 96.73/MWh. Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) were influenced by a reduction in thermal generation within the energy mix, as well as by lower natural gas prices. The Central region experienced above-average congestion levels, while system-wide demand declined due to reduced cooling needs, driven by rainfall across the Eastern, Central, and Northern regions of the country. Nevertheless, the peak of summer is approaching—typically occurring in July and August—when historical data indicates a tendency for prices to rise and reach seasonal highs.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +58.0%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -2.6%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -42.8%
- North (Moctezuma) -33.6%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -0.4%
- East (Temascal) +112.7%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +266.4%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 51.3/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 31.6/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 18.6/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 21.6/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 32.3/MWh
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Temascal
USD 69.0/MWh
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Ticul
USD 118.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 32.5/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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112.0
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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101.0
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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97.0
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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97.0
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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65.0
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Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
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Peninsular
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40.0
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Enlace Riviera
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Peninsular
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30.0
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Malpaso - Tabasco
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East
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 61.84 GWh (+21.5%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 34.27 GWh, compared to last week (+8.5%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.5/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 2.4/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 1.32% from the previous week to 7.5 TW, while peak demand was 48.5 GW showing a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -2.25 pp, Legacy Contract +0.41 pp, Non dispatchable +0.24 pp, Hydro Power +0.45 pp and Renewable +1.14 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 19.2 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.52%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 2.84/MMBtu, decreasing by 6.4%. This downward trend was primarily driven by mild seasonal weather, steady production levels, and elevated natural gas storage, which collectively capped any strong price gains. Despite this short-term weakness, the broader market outlook remains bullish. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a notable rebound in the second half of the year, by increasing demand from the power sector—especially due to summer heat and expanding data center activity—as well as continued strength in LNG exports that are tightening domestic supply.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +3.6%, +3.8%, and +2.2% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 64.06/bbl., USD 67.18/bbl., and USD 58.73/bbl. The political environment is about to influence the next months oil benchmarks, where last week, Iran announced plans to issue a counter-proposal to a U.S. nuclear deal offer it considers "unacceptable," as President Trump emphasized continued disagreement over Iran’s right to enrich uranium domestically. By the publish day of this newsletter, Iran received an attack from Israel, bouncing oil prices up by 6%, given Iran's role as OPEC’s third-largest producer.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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