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VOL 7 | NUM 46 | 26 May 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 11 - 17 May 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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LMP increased driven by surging demand and fuel price escalation
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 40/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 46% higher from the previous week and 45.7% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Xcalacoco (Peninsular) at USD 791/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -57.07/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 6.67/MWh and USD 157.89/MWh. Last week, the LMP increased by nearly 50% compared to the previous week, remaining within 2023 levels, while national demand continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of 1 TWh since April. The Peninsular, East, and Central regions recorded higher prices due to congestion, unlike the north and northwest areas, where negative prices decreased. Additionally, the share of non-dispatchable plants declined, while renewable and thermal generation increased.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +124.4%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +25.1%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -44.3%
- North (Moctezuma) -25.1%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +25.7%
- East (Temascal) +205.9%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +360.9%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 60.9/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 33.9/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 15.1/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 20.3/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 34.1/MWh
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Temascal
USD 83.0/MWh
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Ticul
USD 125.1/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 39.7/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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103.0
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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85.0
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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77.0
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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67.0
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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61.0
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 95.09 GWh (+28.9%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 0.13 GWh (-0%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 1/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 7.6/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 4.23% from the previous week to 7.4 TW, while peak demand was 49.1 GW showing an increase of 6.28% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.68 pp, Legacy Contract -0.13 pp, Non dispatchable -1.27 pp, Hydro Power +0.11 pp and Renewable +0.6 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 19.5 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.51%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.2/MMBtu, increasing by 0.06%. Recent negotiations between regions in North America and the Middle East, marked by uncertainty, along with new sanctions imposed by European regions on a major oil producer in Eurasia, have led to an increase in Brent and WTI crude oil prices. This rise was expected, as many countries rely on oil supplies from these key regions.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +5.9%, +5.2%, and +5.6% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 63.94/bbl., USD 65.54/bbl., and USD 58.94/bbl. During the week of May 11 to 17, 2025, natural gas prices at Henry Hub remained stable, with values similar to the previous week and only slight fluctuations. This stability reflects a balance between supply and demand, favorable weather conditions, and consistent production, with no significant changes in the market.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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