|
|
VOL 7 | NUM 44 | 12 May 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MEXICO - SIN | 27 April - 3 May 2025
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly Stability in PML, Demand, and Generation Mix, with Variations in Fuel Prices
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 28/MWh.
|
|
The Energy Component was 4% higher from the previous week and 52.3% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
|
|
The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Candelaria Dos (Peninsular) at USD 415/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -62.04/MWh.
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Energy Component ranged between USD 0/MWh and USD 109.13/MWh. The LMP remained within similar ranges to last week, with a year-to-date average comparable to 2023. Demand showed a slight weekly increase and continues to exceed the levels observed during the same period in the last two year. The average hourly monthly PML for April was lower than in March, and the first days of May started with even lower values. In the Peninsular, East, and Central regions, PMLs increased due to high generation costs and further rose at the end of the week due to network congestion. In the northern part of the country, only the Northwest reference node registered negative prices. The generation mix remained stable, with a slight reduction in conventional thermal output and a minor increase in renewable energy.
|
|
The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
|
- Central (Victoria) +80.5%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +6.3%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -49.4%
- North (Moctezuma) -32.1%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +11.8%
- East (Temascal) +122.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +135.4%
|
|
Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Victoria
USD 50.4/MWh
|
|
Monterrey
USD 29.7/MWh
|
|
Nacozari
USD 14.1/MWh
|
|
Moctezuma
USD 19.0/MWh
|
|
|
S. L. Potosí
USD 31.2/MWh
|
|
Temascal
USD 62.0/MWh
|
|
Ticul
USD 65.8/MWh
|
|
Energy Component
USD 27.9/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hours
|
Transmission Link
|
Region
|
|
121.0
|
Tapachula - Los Brillantes
|
East
|
|
85.0
|
Teotihuacan - Texcoco
|
Central
|
|
79.0
|
Los Mochis - Guamuchil
|
Northwest
|
|
53.0
|
Enlace Cozumel
|
Peninsular
|
|
49.0
|
Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
|
Northeast
|
|
28.0
|
Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
|
North
|
|
25.0
|
Culiacan - Mazatlan
|
Northwest
|
|
|
Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 61.76 GWh (+16.1%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 0.48 GWh (-0.1%), compared to last week.
|
|
Wind captured price was USD 0.9/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 7.8/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
|
|
Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price*
|
Wind Price*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly planned demand increased by 1.47% from the previous week to 6.9 TW, while peak demand was 45.5 GW showing an increase of 0.89% compared to the previous week.
|
|
Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.68 pp, Legacy Contract +0.07 pp, Non dispatchable +0.13 pp, Hydro Power -0.01 pp and Renewable +0.51 pp.
|
|
Planned generation mix
|
|
|
|
|
Planned variation
|
|
|
|
|
Planned demand in the MDA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 19.6 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
|
|
Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.09/MMBtu, increasing by 3%. During the week of April 27 to May 3, 2025, the average natural gas price at Henry Hub showed a slight increase compared to previous weeks. Prices rose notably mid- and late week, with futures reaching up to $3.795 USD/MMBtu. This trend was driven by colder weather forecasts, which increased demand expectations. Additionally, congestion in the Mexican power grid contributed regional pressure to the market. The U.S. EIA projects a steady rise in prices, reaching around $4.20 USD/MMBtu in Q3 2025.
|
|
WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -4.3%, -7%, and -4.9% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 60.99/bbl., USD 63.5/bbl., and USD 57.48/bbl. During the week of April 27 to May 3, oil prices declined across the main benchmarks. Both WTI and Brent dropped to their lowest levels in several years. The Mexican crude (MME) also followed this downward trend. The decline was driven by increased production from OPEC+, which accelerated the rollback of its voluntary output cuts. Additional downward pressure came from concerns over global demand and ongoing economic tensions.
|
|
Map
|
|
|
|
|
International indexes
|
|
|
|
|
The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
|
DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
