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VOL 7 | NUM 43 | 5 May 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 20 - 26 April 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Conventional Thermal Generation Rebounds in the Energy Mix as Demand Begins to Rise
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) stayed on USD 27/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 1% stayed on from the previous week and 19.7% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Akimpech (Peninsular) at USD 743/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -72.35/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 0/MWh and USD 165.26/MWh. The electricity price remained within the same range as the previous week and, on average, is aligned with the levels observed during the same period last year. The decline in demand seen over the past two weeks recovered during the most recent week and has returned to values similar to those of last year. The hourly monthly PML during April’s peak hour remained at about half the value recorded in the same month of 2024 and showed similar levels to April 2023, ranging around 60 USD/MWh. The Peninsular region, on Tuesday’s peak hours showed a maximum price of 743.69 USD/MWh at the Ticul node. The other reference nodes reached their highest prices during Wednesday’s peak hour, with the exception of Temascal, which also peaked on Wednesday. For the second consecutive week, a record level of solar energy capture was recorded. Higher solar radiation is expected in the coming weeks, which, along with ongoing heat waves, will likely lead to increased electricity demand.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +9.1%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -5.2%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -58.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -29.8%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -3.7%
- East (Temascal) +11.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +28.6%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 29.7/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 25.8/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 11.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 19.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 26.2/MWh
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Temascal
USD 30.2/MWh
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Ticul
USD 35.0/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 26.9/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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125.0
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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107.0
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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81.0
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Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
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Peninsular
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64.0
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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57.0
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Tamos - Poza Rica
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East
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46.0
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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35.0
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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32.0
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 238.2 GWh (-62.3%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 9.39 GWh (+2.1%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.6/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 13.7/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 7.94% from the previous week to 6.8 TW, while peak demand was 45.1 GW showing an increase of 6.37% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +5.2 pp, Legacy Contract -2.5 pp, Non dispatchable -0.4 pp, Hydro Power +0.44 pp and Renewable -2.76 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 19.6 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 2.49%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3/MMBtu, decreasing by 8.03%. Henry Hub natural gas prices saw a slight decline, fluctuating between 3.16 and 2.71 USD/MMBtu. This decrease was mainly driven by warmer temperatures that reduced residential heating demand, along with an abundant supply in the market. Additionally, storage levels remained relatively stable, contributing to limited upward pressure on prices. While prices remain low compared to previous years, a gradual recovery is expected throughout the year, supported by increasing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1.1%, +0.2%, and +2.7% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 63.62/bbl., USD 67.92/bbl., and USD 60.28/bbl. Gasoline prices saw a slight increase across the three main indices: MME, Brent, and WTI. This rise is attributed to a combination of factors, including a larger-than-expected reduction in gasoline inventories in the United States, which raised expectations of higher seasonal demand during the spring. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. trade policies have influenced the volatility of oil prices, indirectly affecting gasoline costs. Despite these increases, prices remain relatively low compared to historical levels, which may offer an opportunity for consumers and businesses in terms of energy costs.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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