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VOL 7 | NUM 40 | 14 April 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 30 March - 5 April 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Greater Contribution of Renewable Energy to the System and Decreased Demand Lead to a Drop in the PML
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 34/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 20% and 38.8% lower than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 217/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Maniobras La Lucha (North) at USD -43.59/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 6.75/MWh and USD 73.35/MWh. For the same week, the PML remains at levels like those of 2023, and the demand stays within the range of values observed in the last two years. On an hourly basis, the SIN experiences two main peaks in its energy component, one at hour 7 and another at hour 20. The day with the highest prices of the week continues to be Wednesday during the peak hour. This week, outside the north and northwest regions, no high values were observed due to congestion or losses. In general, the PML values of the reference nodes were consistent with each other. In these first months of the year, thermal technology has a lower share in generation compared to the same months of the previous year, in contrast to hydraulic technology and renewable energy.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +5.8%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -1.3%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -88.5%
- North (Moctezuma) -88.2%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.6%
- East (Temascal) +6.4%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +15.4%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 35.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 33.2/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 3.9/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 4.0/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 33.1/MWh
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Temascal
USD 35.8/MWh
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Ticul
USD 38.8/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 33.7/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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147
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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107
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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90
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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48
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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33
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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32
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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18
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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16
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Mazatlan - Durango
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 167.6 GWh (+40%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 0.38 GWh, compared to last week (+0.1%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.4/MWh and USD 5.4/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 1.61% from the previous week to 6.1 TW, while peak demand was 40.5 GW showing a decrease of 1.46% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -3.3 pp, Legacy Contract +2.03 pp, Non dispatchable -0.27 pp, Hydro Power -0.01 pp and Renewable +1.58 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.5%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.14/MMBtu, decreasing by 0.34%. Natural gas prices in the U.S. fell by 0.3% from the previous week due to an unexpected increase in reserves and forecasts of lower demand due to milder weather. Despite gas production reaching a record high in March, there was a decrease in daily production due to maintenance. LNG exports continued to rise, but demand is expected to increase slightly next week.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1.5%, +0.9%, and +1.2% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 67.96/bbl., USD 72.21/bbl., and USD 64.89/bbl. The prices of WTI, Brent, and MME oil saw an increase due to factors such as rising global energy demand and expectations of production cuts. This directly affected the costs of electricity generation, with a notable rise in fuel prices impacting thermal plants. Geopolitical tensions and economic policies also contributed to this market trend.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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