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VOL 7 | NUM 39 | 7 April 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 23 - 29 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Blackouts and natural gas irruptions in Peninsula
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 49/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 44% and 124.5% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Xcalacoco (Peninsular) at USD 714/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Valle de Mexico Maniobras (Center) at USD -61.69/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 0/MWh and USD 125.59/MWh. Last week, the SIN system recorded its highest price at the Ticul reference node since February 17 of this year. This spike was primarily driven by reduced generation from the Nuevo Pemex cogeneration plant, caused by poor gas quality linked to high humidity levels in the Mayakán pipeline. Additionally, scheduled blackouts were implemented on Monday in the East and Peninsular regions—Tabasco, Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatán—to mitigate the impact of the disruption. Compounding the situation, wind generation saw a sharp decline on both Monday and Friday, further contributing to price volatility.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +26.4%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -4.3%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -83.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -83.1%
- West (San Luis Potosi) +2.8%
- East (Temascal) +35.8%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +88.6%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 61.4/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 46.4/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 7.9/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 8.2/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 49.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 65.9/MWh
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Ticul
USD 91.5/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 48.5/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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104
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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82
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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63
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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47
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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47
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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44
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Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
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Peninsular
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36
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 185.61 GWh (-46.3%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 27.52 GWh, compared to last week (-6.7%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 1.7/MWh and USD 8.1/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 6.56% from the previous week to 6.5 TW, while peak demand was 42.4 GW showing an increase of 4.69% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +5.09 pp, Legacy Contract -2.49 pp, Non dispatchable -0.37 pp, Hydro Power -0 pp and Renewable -2.24 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.2 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 1%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.92/MMBtu, decreasing by 5.32%. U.S.' natural gas demand fell by 7.8% the last week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights reported by EIA since warmer weather starts. American natural gas imports to Mexico increased 7.8%.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +2.7%, +3%, and +2.7% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 69.81/bbl., USD 74.35/bbl., and USD 66.61/bbl. Fears of a global slowdown grew ahead of Trump’s auto and reciprocal tariffs taken effect last Wednesday. While OPEC+ plans to ease its 2.2 million bpd output cuts in April, Trump’s tariff threats against key members like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela could curb their supply, offsetting the increase.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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