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VOL 7 | NUM 37 | 24 March 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 9 - 15 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Declining Wind Energy Production Drove Higher Energy Prices
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 42/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 16% higher from the previous week and 18.2% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Akimpech (Peninsular) at USD 614/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Altamira (Northeast) at USD -17.34/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 12.16/MWh and USD 102.4/MWh. In the Weekly Evolution of LMP graph, energy price ranges grew compared to the previous week and also experienced increased volatility. Once again, Nacozari and Moctezuma (in the North and Northeast regions) were the nodes with the highest congestion and the lowest price ranges, even reaching negative levels. This highlights the noticeable decoupling of these nodes from the rest of the grid and the Energy Component. It is important to note that on Thursday, there was a significant decrease in wind energy production, which corresponds to the observed higher price peaks. With less wind energy available, prices increased considerably.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +8.2%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -1.1%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -87.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -80.4%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -2.7%
- East (Temascal) +11.7%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +21.8%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 45.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 41.7/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 5.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 8.3/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 41.0/MWh
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Temascal
USD 47.1/MWh
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Ticul
USD 51.3/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 42.1/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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140
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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86
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Culiacan - Mazatlan
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Northwest
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80
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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47
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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46
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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24
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 58.95 GWh (-14.1%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 31.02 GWh (+7.7%), compared to last week.
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.8/MWh and USD 5.1/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand stayed on from the previous week to 6.2 TW, while peak demand was 41.1 GW showing an increase of 0.98% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.91 pp, Legacy Contract -0.86 pp, Non dispatchable -0.49 pp, Hydro Power +0.52 pp and Renewable -0.1 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.1 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 1.47%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.15/MMBtu, decreasing by 2.85%. In a report from Reuters, it is established that U.S. natural gas presented a lower demand than expected, so, as U.S. is a major natural gas supplier, this has also affected to the Henry Hub natural gas reported, as it decreased 2.85% compared to last week.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -0.8%, -0.5%, and +0.6% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 66.95/bbl., USD 71.54/bbl., and USD 64.15/bbl. According to a report from Markets, OPEC+ members presented an oversupply in oil market by ramping up production. Which has resulted in a decrease in WTI and Brent prices as several oil supply comes from the OPEC+ members. The decrease of the oil price could be expected as these oversupply was some days ago.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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