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VOL 7 | NUM 36 | 17 March 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 2 - 8 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Colder-than-usual temperatures have driven up natural gas prices
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 36/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 6% higher from the previous week and 0.3% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Xcalacoco (Peninsular) at USD 591/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Maniobras La Lucha (North) at USD -54.81/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 0.95/MWh and USD 127.51/MWh. With a steady but gradual upward trend in demand, prices are exhibiting a wider spread and increased volatility. Weekly fluctuations in renewable generation have led to price spikes, particularly on Tuesdays and Fridays across regions. Nonetheless, renewables increased their share of total generation over thermal sources last week, driven by rising fuel costs.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +6.9%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -6.1%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -84.3%
- North (Moctezuma) -86.6%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -2.7%
- East (Temascal) +11.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +28.5%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 38.8/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 34.1/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 5.7/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 4.9/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 35.3/MWh
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Temascal
USD 40.3/MWh
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Ticul
USD 46.7/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 36.3/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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68
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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38
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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37
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Dzitnup - Riviera Maya
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 67.51 GWh (+16.5%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 7.82 GWh, compared to last week (+2%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 1.3/MWh and USD 5.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 3.33% from the previous week to 6.2 TW, while peak demand was 40.7 GW showing an increase of 4.36% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.89 pp, Legacy Contract +0.13 pp, Non dispatchable +0.04 pp, Hydro Power +0.19 pp and Renewable +0.52 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.4 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.49%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.27/MMBtu, increasing by 9.82%. The heating demand increased in North America and Europe due to colder weather conditions. Due to higher-than-average withdrawals, inventories in the U.S. and Europe are running low, raising concerns about supply shortages. With stockpiles below normal levels, replenishing them may take longer, especially if winter conditions continue or production remains limited. Output has been constrained due to freeze-offs in key production regions, intensifying worries about supply shortages.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -3.6%, -3.2%, and -3.1% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 67.52/bbl., USD 71.93/bbl., and USD 63.8/bbl. Oil prices have declined after a sharp rise on last Friday, ending the week with losses. This reversal is due to OPEC's decision to increase production starting in April, uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, and a bearish increase in U.S. crude stocks. According to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, "There is a bit of a concern in the market that the OPEC+ decision is the start of a series of more monthly supply additions, but the statement from OPEC+ reiterates an approach in bringing back barrels only if the market can absorb them,".
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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