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VOL 7 | NUM 35 | 10 March 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 23 February - 1 March 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Decrease in electricity demand and increase in hydraulic generation contribution reduce the LMP of the SIN
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 34/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 15% lower from the previous week and 20.5% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Cozumel (Peninsular) at USD 316/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Maniobras La Lucha (North) at USD -14.68/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 20.06/MWh and USD 73.41/MWh. Electricity demand is recorded with values close to last year for the same week. The contribution of hydro generation has high values not seen since 2022 in the first months of this year. The highest prices of the week continue to occur during the peak hour on Wednesday for most of the reference nodes of the SIN and Peninsular region didn't show high prices due to congestion or losses.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +4.2%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -0.1%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -62.4%
- North (Moctezuma) -62.9%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.2%
- East (Temascal) +4.0%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +13.1%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 35.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 34.1/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 12.8/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 12.6/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 33.7/MWh
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Temascal
USD 35.5/MWh
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Ticul
USD 38.6/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 34.1/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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153
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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55
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Los Mochis - Guamuchil
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Northwest
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11
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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10
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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10
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Cumbres Frontera (Mexico) - Rail Road (USA)
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Northeast
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 67.65 GWh (-16.5%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 48.98 GWh (+14.1%), compared to last week.
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.2/MWh and USD 4.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 3.23% from the previous week to 6 TW, while peak demand was 39 GW showing a decrease of 3.23% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -0.85 pp, Legacy Contract -0.22 pp, Non dispatchable +0.14 pp, Hydro Power +0.55 pp and Renewable +0.39 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.5 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 0.99%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.89/MMBtu, decreasing by 34.03%. The decrease in Henry Hub natural gas prices in the week was primarily due to increased production, which boosted reserves and exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, concerns about economic policies and their potential impact on demand led to negative market sentiment. This combination of factors contributed to the price decline during that period. Increased supply and economic uncertainty were key drivers behind the drop.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -3.1%, -2.5%, and -3.6% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 69.93/bbl., USD 74.25/bbl., and USD 65.79/bbl. The decrease in crude oil prices, including Brent and WTI, during the week, was driven by concerns over new U.S. tariffs, which raised fears of a global trade war and reduced demand. Additionally, OPEC+ plans to increase production in April after months of cuts added to worries of an oversupply in the market. These factors, combined with global economic uncertainty, contributed to the decline in oil prices during that period.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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