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VOL 7 | NUM 34 | 3 March 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 16 - 22 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Minimal Variation in LMP Despite Fuel Price Increase and Reduction in Renewable Energy
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 40/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 3% and 82% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Candelaria Dos (Peninsular) at USD 747/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Zocac (East) at USD -48.4/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 0/MWh and USD 96.62/MWh. The demand follows last year's trend, but at a higher level. The power plant technologies increased their contribution, except for renewables. In most reference nodes, the highest price occurred on Wednesday at the 19 hours. For the Peninsular region, it occurred on Monday at 21 hours with a value of 739.67 USD, mainly due to high congestion in the region.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +7.1%
- Northeast (Monterrey) +4.0%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -46.1%
- North (Moctezuma) -47.6%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -0.1%
- East (Temascal) +11.5%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +193.3%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 42.7/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 41.5/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 21.5/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 20.9/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 39.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 44.5/MWh
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Ticul
USD 117.1/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 39.9/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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108
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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92
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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60
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Culiacan- Mazatlan
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Northwest
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53
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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33
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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26
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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24
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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16
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Peninsular (Mexico) - Belice
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Peninsular
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 49.67 GWh (+11.6%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 11.72 GWh (-3.4%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.4/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 3.8/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand stayed on from the previous week to 6.2 TW, while peak demand was 40.3 GW showing a decrease of 0.49% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +0.15 pp, Legacy Contract +0.13 pp, Non dispatchable +0.05 pp, Hydro Power +0.2 pp and Renewable -0.53 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.3 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.98%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 5.9/MMBtu, increasing by 46.55%. Natural gas prices in the U.S. have reached their highest level in recent years due to cold temperatures that have increased heating demand. Despite production disruptions caused by freezing, natural gas demand continues to grow, impacting prices.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -0.1%, +0.1%, and +0.3% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 72.1/bbl., USD 76.09/bbl., and USD 68.13/bbl. In recent weeks, the prices of WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil fell due to increased storage levels, raising concerns about excess supply. However, in recent days, prices have recovered driven by the strengthening of the dollar, which has boosted the attractiveness of crude oil in international markets.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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