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VOL 7 | NUM 33 | 24 February 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 9 - 15 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Rising price pressures driven by reduced renewable energy output and soaring natural gas costs
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 39/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 34% and 22.1% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Nicte-Ha (Peninsular) at USD 782/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Mazatlan Dos (Northwest) at USD -63.49/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 12.25/MWh and USD 121.66/MWh. The last week, renewable generation showed lower levels and the thermal increased its share, driving prices to slurge. The most affected region that presented high congestion levels was once again the Peninsular region.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +16.9%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -10.1%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -59.3%
- North (Moctezuma) -51.7%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -2.7%
- East (Temascal) +29.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +159.2%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 45.5/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 35.0/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 15.8/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 18.8/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 37.9/MWh
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Temascal
USD 50.2/MWh
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Ticul
USD 100.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 38.9/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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128
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Culiacan- Mazatlan
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Northwest
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84
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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76
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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74
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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47
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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45
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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35
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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35
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Mazatlan 400 KV - Mazatlan 230-115 KV
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Northwest
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27
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 138.93 GWh (-32.4%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with a decrease of 7.62 GWh, compared to last week (-2.1%).
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.1/MWh and USD 5.8/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 6.9% from the previous week to 6.2 TW, while peak demand was 40.5 GW showing an increase of 3.58% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +4.09 pp, Legacy Contract -1.98 pp, Non dispatchable -1.62 pp, Hydro Power +0.94 pp and Renewable -1.43 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.5 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.49%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 4.03/MMBtu, increasing by 22.74%. Colder than normal weather forecast in the US and upcoming storms, increased Henry Hub price last week. Also considering the fall in storage inventories, due to the high demand from January onwards. Preliminary data from S&P reported that domestic consumption increased by 22% compared to previous years. SOme of the indicators to watch in the following weeks are the export levels to Canada and the tariff settlements imposed by the U.S. president.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +0.2%, +0.8%, and +1.1% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 72.17/bbl., USD 76.01/bbl., and USD 68.16/bbl. Crude oil prices remained stable for another week, after China economic growth kept on hold. New markets such as the Indian are overpassing the China's demand of crude oil. Fereydoun Barkeshli, president of the Vienna Energy Research Group, noted that the international oil market had been weak since mid-2024 and attributed price fluctuations largely to cautious market sentiment regarding Chinese demand.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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