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VOL 7 | NUM 32 | 14 February 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 2 - 8 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Reduced Demand and Increased Contribution from Clean Energies Impact the Decrease in PML
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 29/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 35% lower from the previous week and 21.3% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Nicte-Ha (Peninsular) at USD 912/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Conejos Medanos (North) at USD -3.53/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 13.94/MWh and USD 60.77/MWh. The contribution from thermal power plants decreased, as well as the price of fuels. In the Peninsula region, high congestion was experienced during several hours on Saturday, which increased the PML, unlike what happened in the northern and northwestern managements. Demand fell for the second consecutive week.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +4.7%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -4.9%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -53.6%
- North (Moctezuma) -48.1%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.1%
- East (Temascal) +6.1%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +50.5%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 30.5/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 27.7/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 13.5/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 15.1/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 28.8/MWh
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Temascal
USD 30.9/MWh
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Ticul
USD 43.8/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 29.1/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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126
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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125
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Culiacan- Mazatlan
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Northwest
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58
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Noreste - Norte
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Northeast
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57
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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49
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Mazatlan 400 KV - Mazatlan 230-115 KV
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Northwest
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46
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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31
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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16
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SIN - Escarcega
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Peninsular
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11
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Ixtepec a Juile 2-12
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East
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 137.9 GWh (+32.1%). The same pattern was followed by solar generation forecast, with an increase of 27.59 GWh, compared to last week (+8.1%).
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Wind captured price was USD 0.6/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 3.6/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 3.33% from the previous week to 5.8 TW, while peak demand was 39.1 GW showing a decrease of 0.76% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -4.15 pp, Legacy Contract +1.52 pp, Non dispatchable +3 pp, Hydro Power +0.42 pp and Renewable +4.35 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.6 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 0.49%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.28/MMBtu, decreasing by 0.85%. Natural gas prices in the U.S. experienced significant volatility driven by colder weather forecasts and the threat of new tariffs. Additionally, the rise in LNG exports and the decline in inventories contributed to the volatility.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -1.7%, -2.6%, and -2.4% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 72.05/bbl., USD 75.4/bbl., and USD 67.53/bbl. Oil prices fell due to concerns about the potential impact of a trade war between the United States and Asian economic powerhouse on global growth, which overshadowed the effect of U.S. sanctions on crude exports from Asian producers. Trump's policies, trade tensions, and rising supplies pressured prices. WTI fell for the third consecutive week due to these trade concerns.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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