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VOL 7 | NUM 31 | 7 February 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 26 January - 1 February 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Volatile behavior caused by the changes in renewable generation
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) decreased to USD 45/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 25% lower from the previous week and 56.3% higher than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Nicte-Ha (Peninsular) at USD 871/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Conejos Medanos (North) at USD -8.84/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 17.18/MWh and USD 115.45/MWh. It was lower than the previous week because the significant decrease in the Natural Gas Price. However, it has a volatile behavior with almost 100 USD of difference between the minimum and maximum values. This was caused by a decrease on wind generation on Friday, increasing Thermal generation and in consequence the Energy component price.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +8.6%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -10.4%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -60.8%
- North (Moctezuma) -45.4%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -0.4%
- East (Temascal) +9.9%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +17.3%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 48.7/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 40.2/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 17.6/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 24.5/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 44.7/MWh
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Temascal
USD 49.3/MWh
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Ticul
USD 52.6/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 44.9/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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70
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Culiacan- Mazatlan
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Northwest
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42
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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32
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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31
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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16
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Mazatlan - Tepic
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Northwest
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16
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Mazatlan 400 KV - Mazatlan 230-115 KV
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Northwest
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11
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Cumbres Frontera (Mexico) - Rail Road (USA)
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Northeast
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 66.98 GWh (-15.6%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 12.63 GWh (+3.9%), compared to last week.
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.4/MWh and USD 9.1/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand decreased by 1.64% from the previous week to 6 TW, while peak demand was 39.4 GW showing a decrease of 1.99% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +2.25 pp, Legacy Contract -0.27 pp, Non dispatchable -4.13 pp, Hydro Power -0.31 pp and Renewable -2.68 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.5 MXN/USD, identical to last week.
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.31/MMBtu, decreasing by 17.61%. The causes of this drop are the rise in the temperatures across U.S. and the Natural Gas stocks. The weather trend will keep during February according to the National Weather Service. And, although it was a cold January, the stocks of Natural Gas remained high. Therefore, the markets settled a low price for gas.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were -3.3%, -3.3%, and -2.2% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 73.31/bbl., USD 77.37/bbl., and USD 69.43/bbl. The prices decreased caused by a low demand for oil caused and the increase in the stocks according to the EIA. However, the specialists consider that the price may recover depending on the Chinese demand. Nevertheless, this can be affected by a trade war between China and US.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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