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VOL 7 | NUM 29 | 24 January 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 12 - 18 January 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Increase in demand and fuel prices surge, drove energy prices up
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 47/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 25% higher from the previous week and 4.2% lower than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in Akimpech (Peninsular) at USD 566/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Las Delicias (West) at USD -31.08/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 9.27/MWh and USD 122.53/MWh. The demand continues to rise in the first month of the year. This week, congestion was experienced from the Yucatán Peninsula to the central region of the country, leading to above-average prices in these areas. Generation saw an increase in the contribution from hydroelectric technology, while the contribution from thermal power plants decreased.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +20.3%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -25.1%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -48.6%
- North (Moctezuma) -39.4%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -1.8%
- East (Temascal) +21.9%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +28.6%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 56.6/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 35.2/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 24.2/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 28.5/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 46.2/MWh
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Temascal
USD 57.4/MWh
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Ticul
USD 60.5/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 47.0/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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137
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Culiacan- Mazatlan
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Northwest
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60
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Huinala - RGM
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Northeast
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32
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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23
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Cumbres Frontera (Mexico) - Rail Road (USA)
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Northeast
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20
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Enlace Cozumel
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Peninsular
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14
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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14
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Teotihuacan - Texcoco
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Central
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13
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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Wind generation forecast decreased compared to the previous week by 51.77 GWh (-11.7%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, increased by 34.36 GWh (+13.2%), compared to last week.
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Wind and Solar captured prices were USD 0.3/MWh and USD 5.5/MWh lower than the Energy Component, respectively.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 1.69% from the previous week to 6 TW, while peak demand was 39.3 GW showing an increase of 0.77% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal -1.02 pp, Legacy Contract -0.63 pp, Non dispatchable +1.26 pp, Hydro Power +0.46 pp and Renewable -0.07 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.7 MXN/USD, increasing marginally by 0.98%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 5.47/MMBtu, increasing by 38.94%. After several months, the price of Henry Hub this week surpassed the $4 per MMBtu mark, reaching a historic $9.86 on Friday. The new policies from the U.S. government regarding the opening of the natural gas market may lead to a supply shortage and further drive up prices.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +5.5%, +6%, and +5.9% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 79.28/bbl., USD 82.79/bbl., and USD 73.24/bbl. This beginning of the year, fuel prices are gradually increasing. On average, prices this week are 7% higher compared to both the previous week and the same week last year. Similar to the forecast for Henry Hub natural gas, a resource shortage is expected, which could lead to further price increases during the season.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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