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VOL 7 | NUM 28 | 17 January 2025
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MEXICO - SIN | 5 - 11 January 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Natural Gas price increase and demand recover lead to a rise of energy prices
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The Energy Component weekly average in the Day-Ahead Market (MDA) increased to USD 38/MWh.
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The Energy Component was 55% and 7.5% higher than the previous week and than the same week in 2024, respectively.
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The highest Day-Ahead Market LMP (Local Marginal Price) was recorded in San Pedro (Peninsular) at USD 197/MWh, while the lowest was recorded in Maniobras La Lucha (North) at USD -2.78/MWh.
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Weekly average
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Energy Component of the National Interconnected System - Hourly average per month
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The Energy Component ranged between USD 0.92/MWh and USD 92.45/MWh. The energy component grew significantly because two factors: demand recovered the levels before the holiday season and the Henry Hub increased 13% compared to last week. Negative congestion in the Northen Control Regions decreased the Local Marginal price versus the energy component, especially for North and Northwest.
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The trend of the PMLs in each reference node is represented below in percentage difference (%) from the weekly average of the Energy Component:
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- Central (Victoria) +6.2%
- Northeast (Monterrey) -9.7%
- Northwest (Nacozari) -39.7%
- North (Moctezuma) -33.3%
- West (San Luis Potosi) -0.7%
- East (Temascal) +11.9%
- Peninsular (Ticul) +16.3%
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Weekly evolution of Local Marginal Price (PML) in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Victoria
USD 40.1/MWh
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Monterrey
USD 34.1/MWh
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Nacozari
USD 22.8/MWh
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Moctezuma
USD 25.2/MWh
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S. L. Potosí
USD 37.5/MWh
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Temascal
USD 42.3/MWh
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Ticul
USD 43.9/MWh
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Energy Component
USD 37.8/MWh
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Weekly Average PML Components in 7 reference nodes (MDA)
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Hours
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Transmission Link
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Region
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77
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Culiacan- Mazatlan
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Northwest
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55
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Tapachula - Los Brillantes
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East
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44
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Chihuahua - Noreste + Camargo Dos - Gomez Palacio
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North
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42
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Ciudad Industrial (Mexico) - Laredo Americano (USA)
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Northeast
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37
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Huinala - RGM
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Northeast
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11
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Cumbres Frontera (Mexico) - Rail Road (USA)
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Northeast
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10
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Queretaro
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West
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Wind generation forecast increased compared to the previous week by 79.79 GWh (+19.2%). Contrarily, solar generation forecast, decreased by 58.08 GWh (-22.2%), compared to last week.
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Wind captured price was USD 0.3/MWh higher than the Energy Component, while solar captured price was USD 3/MWh lower than the Energy Component.
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Wind & Solar generation forecast for the SIN (MDA)
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Solar PV Price*
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Wind Price*
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*Energy weighted average LMP, using LMP in Victoria
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Weekly planned demand increased by 15.69% from the previous week to 5.9 TW, while peak demand was 39 GW showing an increase of 10.8% compared to the previous week.
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Shares of generation compared to the previous week were: Thermal +3.73 pp, Legacy Contract -1.75 pp, Non dispatchable -1.98 pp, Hydro Power +0.04 pp and Renewable -0.04 pp.
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Planned generation mix
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Planned variation
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Planned demand in the MDA
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The MXN/USD exchange rate closed the week at 20.5 MXN/USD, decreasing marginally by 0.49%
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Henry Hub natural gas benchmark closed the week at an average of USD 3.93/MMBtu, increasing by 13.7%. The temperatures during the Winter season have contributed to increase the Natural Gas Price. For example, during the week, according to CNN, Texas had a Winter Storm that caused power outages and electricity disruptions. The trend for Henry Hub during January will be to grow because the LNG exports according to the EIA.
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WTI, Brent, and MME crude oil benchmarks prices were +1.6%, +2.5%, and +1.9% from the previous week, respectively, closing at USD 74.31/bbl., USD 77.27/bbl., and USD 68.57/bbl. According to a report from CNBC, last Friday the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions to two main Russian oil producers. Which have resulted in a growth in Brent and WTI crude oil prices, as several countries which main oil supply from Russia. The growth of Brent and WTI oil prices could be expected due to the announcement of the sanctions which was made last Friday.
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Map
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International indexes
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The nodes used for this report have been selected by DNV for their ability to represent the behavior of the different Control Regions within the SIN.
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DNV, Insurgentes Sur 859, 03810 Ciudad de México, México
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