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VOL 8 | NUM 8 | 28 October 2025
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IBERIA | 20 - 26 October 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
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Wind came back with strength in the Iberian mix driving down by 46% weekly average power price
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 50.6/MWh last week, registering a decrease of -45.6% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 93/MWh). This weekly price was 33% lower than 2024 (EUR 75.1/MWh) and 25% lower than in 2023 (EUR 67.1/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 64.5/MWh, 21% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 53.4/MWh) and -30% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 91.6/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 3.3%, reaching 5.65 TWh, compared to the 5.47 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Wind generation share skyrocketed by 24 pp
- Resulting in share decrease of all other technologies, in particular gas with -12 pp
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Global renewable energy share increased from 46.1% to 61.6% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Prices dropped on average during first half of the week as wind was strong, dropping both during daytime and night time, although maintaining price speaks during early morning and evening.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 164.9/MWh, reached on Friday at 9:30 p.m., coupled with Portugal. Minimum price, EUR -0.01/MWh was reached on Thursday between at 2:30 p.m. and 4:15 p.m., coupled with France most of the time.
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The SWE grid coupling was 28%, higher than recorded the previous week, 27%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 88%
- Spain-France: 33%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 28%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 50.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 47.2/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 51.7/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 34/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 4.6 GW. Cofrentes and Almaraz 2 were in planned maintenance (until October 26 and November 8 respectively). Additionally, Trillo had an operational failure on Monday, reducing down to 60% its power output. On Saturday, Vandellos started its planned maintenance until December 9.
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation. Large pumping during day-time was present alongside the week in Spain and Portugal, but also during windy nights.
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5.5 GW and relevant baseload despite large wind as nuclear output was particularly low.
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- Wind was the first source of electricity during 67% of the week, followed by wind (20%) and gas (8%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 42% and 74% of total generation, a tighter variation than observed in the previous week (20% and 71%). Wind's maximum share reached 66% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 46%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 2 TWh, 247.5% higher than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 0.8 TWh, 23.8% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 19.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 19.2/MWh
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Spain
EUR 41.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 40.9/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices rebounded sharply from five-month lows early in the week as US sanctions on Russia’s oil companies triggered supply concerns, before easing slightly by Friday as traders assessed a still well-supplied market and a fragile demand outlook. Brent crude rose more than 7% week-on-week, peaking at USD 65.77/bbl, while WTI traded near USD 61.58/bbl. The rally was driven by fears of supply disruptions from Russia and speculation that India could reduce Russian crude imports under a potential US trade deal. However, lingering oversupply concerns dominated sentiment after the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a global crude surplus of up to 4m bbl/day in 2026.
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European gas prices fluctuated within a narrow EUR 31–33/MWh band, supported midweek by the EU’s confirmation of a 2027 ban on Russian LNG imports and colder weather forecasts. The front-month TTF contract peaked at EUR 32.79/MWh on Thursday before easing to EUR 32.03/MWh on Friday, as strong Norwegian flows and robust LNG imports offset demand-driven gains. EU storage sites were last seen at 82.8% capacity, well below last year’s 95%, though ample LNG supply and mild weather helped maintain market balance.
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European carbon prices remained stable within a EUR 78–80/t range as the market continued to consolidate amid mixed fundamentals. The Dec 25 EUA contract ended the week at EUR 78.03/t, slightly lower than the prior week’s close, as mild temperatures, strong wind generation, and subdued industrial activity limited compliance demand.
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Finally, power futures remained relatively stable. Q1 26 closed rising 1.1% at EUR 64.7/MWh, while Q2 26 rose by 2.5% to EUR 41.2/MWh. Q3 26 decreased by 0.1% to EUR 67.1/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 26 rose by 0.2% to EUR 61.5/MWh, and Cal 27 decreased by 0.5% to EUR 58.5/MWh.
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