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VOL 8 | NUM 7 | 21 October 2025
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IBERIA | 13 - 19 October 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Increase of the Day-Ahead Market price due to the drop in wind generation
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 93/MWh last week, registering a rise of 16.4% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 79.9/MWh). This weekly price was 49% higher than 2024 (EUR 62.4/MWh) and 18% higher than in 2023 (EUR 78.5/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 64.8/MWh, 22% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 52.9/MWh) and -30% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 92.2/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -0.2%, reaching 5.47 TWh, compared to the 5.48 TWh recorded the previous week. On Monday, demand fell slightly because some regions moved the October 12 holiday to Monday.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Wind generation dropped by -9.5 pp, while solar PV decreased by -1.0 pp
- To compensate this change, gas generation rose by 8.4 pp its participation, followed by imports (2.2 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 56.6% to 46.1% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM prices remained volatile during the day, but did not reach minimum prices on weekdays. However, during the weekend, hourly prices reached values close to EUR 0/MWh during daylight hours, but did not exceed the negative barrier. The maximum price was EUR 172.33/MWh, reached on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m., while the minimum was EUR 0/MWh, reached on Sunday between 12:30 p.m. and 3:00 p.m.
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Except during daytime in the weekend, French DAM prices remained below the Spanish average. Portugal had a slightly higher average during the week, as it decoupled from Spain in solar hours from Tuesday to Friday.
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The SWE grid coupling was 27%, lower compared to the value recorded the previous week, 46%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 84%
- Spain-France: 36%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 27%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 93/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 93/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 94.2/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 78.8/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 4.9 GW, as Cofrentes was in planned maintenance (until October 26), and Almaraz 2 started its planned maintenance on October 6, planned until November 8. Additionally, Asco 1 presented an operational unavailability on Sunday, reducing its generation
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation. The hourly average production was 4.2 GW. Large pumping during daytime was present alongside the week in Spain and Portugal, specially on Saturday and Sunday
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 9.3 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 15.6 GW on Saturday at 8 p.m.
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- Gas was the first source of electricity during 55% of the week, followed by solar PV (33%) and wind (11%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 20% and 71% of total generation, with a smaller lower bound compared to the one observed in the previous week (30% and 72%). Wind's maximum share reached 46% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 58%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.6 TWh, 47.9% lower than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 1.1 TWh, 5% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 62.7/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 66.2/MWh
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Spain
EUR 76.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 59/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, fell on Friday to their lowest point since early May, reaching USD 60.14/bbl. This decline was driven by renewed uncertainty about global supply, following news of a potential US-Russia meeting aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine. Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible supply surplus next year, further weighing on prices. The IEA projected that excess oil supply could increase by up to 4m bbl/day in 2026, as OPEC+ and independent producers such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana boost their output.
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European gas prices dropped to a one-week low of EUR 31.11/MWh on Tuesday due to ample supply and mild weather. Prices then rose to EUR 32.73/MWh on Thursday amid concerns over Russian strikes on Ukrainian gas facilities, but gains were limited by strong supply and weak demand. By Friday, prices edged down again as the market absorbed the impact of the attacks and mild forecasts continued. EU gas storage remained stable at 82.9% week-on-week.
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At the start of the week, European carbon prices experienced a notable decline due to persistent US-China trade tensions. On Tuesday, Dec 2025 contracts fell to EUR 76.92/t, a figure not seen since October 2, before recovering to EUR 79.9/t by Friday. During this period, investment funds increased their net long positions in EUAs by 5.2 million, pushing the total to 90.8 million tons, marking a seven-year high for the second week in a row
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Finally, power futures were very stable, with almost no changes compared to the previous week. Q1 26 edged up 0.38% to EUR 64.00/MWh, while Q2 26 slid by 0.34% to EUR 40.73/MWh, and Q3 26 gained 0.33% to EUR 67.20/MWh. Cal 26 decreased 0.08% to EUR 61.40/MWh, and cal 27 was down 0.25% at EUR 58.80/MWh.
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