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VOL 8 | NUM 4 | 30 September 2025
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IBERIA | 22 - 28 September 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
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Demand reduction combined with wind production rise led to a 18% price drop
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 60.6/MWh last week, declining 18% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 74.3/MWh). This weekly price was 11% higher than in 2024 (EUR 57.3/MWh) and 47% lower than in 2023 (EUR 112.9/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 63.6/MWh, 22% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 52/MWh) and -30% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 91.4/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -8%, reaching 5.53 TWh, compared to the 6.01 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Increase in wind generation by 4.7 pp
- Resulting in drop in imports, gas and hydro generation by -2.7 pp, 2.4 pp and 1.1 pp respectively
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Global renewable energy share increased from 54.3% to 57.8% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM prices presented quite a volatile profile through the week, similar to the week before, where prices dropped to floor values during solar hours to then escalate on evening peaks. The weekly maximum was EUR 175.01/MWh, reached on Thursday at 9 p.m.. Minimum price, EUR -0.01/MWh was repeated several times on Monday during daylight hours.
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Spanish prices decoupled from Portugal during solar hours on Tuesday and Wednesday, while France kept a low coupling rate with the Peninsula with overall lower prices, as the French DAM price was EUR 44.2/MWh.
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The SWE grid coupling was 37%, lower compared to the value recorded the previous week, 13%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 96%
- Spain-France: 41%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 37%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 60.6/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 68.3/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 60.9/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 44.2/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 5.9 GW, a regular level as Cofrentes is currently under planned maintenance (until October 26)
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation. The hourly average production was 3.7 GW. Large pumping during day-time was present alongside the week in Spain and Portugal, specially over the weekend
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5.2 GW and relevant baseload (> 3 GW), with weekly maximum values of 11.6 GW on Thursday at 8 p.m.
- High wind generation in Portugal during the weekend, due to a strong storm: wind power peaked at 4.6 GW, covering up to 92% of Portuguese demand.
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- Solar PV and wind were the first sources of electricity during 39% of the week each, followed by hydro (13%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 33% and 73% of total generation, very similar to the previous week (33% and 71%). Wind's maximum share reached 45% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 60%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 1.1 TWh, 19.9% lower than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 1.2 TWh, 8.7% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 25.6/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 23.9/MWh
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Spain
EUR 58.7/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 55.1/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices remained volatile as supply-side risks persisted amid Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian energy assets and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude peaked at USD 68.10/bbl on Wednesday, its highest level in three weeks, before retreating to USD 66.95/bbl by Friday. The pullback was attributed to growing concerns over weaker US demand indicators and an unexpected rise in crude inventories, which offset earlier supply-driven gains. Despite this, oil benchmarks closed the week slightly higher, supported by expectations of tighter winter balances and geopolitical risks continuing to provide a floor.
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European gas prices firmed midweek, with the TTF front-month contract reaching EUR 34.15/MWh, driven by reduced pipeline flows from Norway due to extended maintenance at Kårstø and Nyhamna. However, high LNG arrivals and robust renewable generation capped further upside, keeping contracts within a narrow band around EUR 33.60/MWh by week’s end. Analysts highlighted that with EU gas storage levels at 82.1%, the market remains comfortably supplied heading into the heating season, though short-term volatility persists due to supply-side disruptions.
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European carbon prices extended their rally, with the benchmark Dec 25 EUA contract rising to EUR 79.10/t on Wednesday, the highest since early March. Prices later eased to EUR 78.45/t on Friday but remained firmly within an upward trend. The increase was attributed to speculative buying momentum and compliance demand ahead of the end-September deadline, with investor net long positions approaching levels last seen in February.
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Finally, power futures showed decreases for almost all terms. Q4 25 closed increasing at EUR 73.85/MWh, while Q1 26 decreased by 1.8% to EUR 65.0/MWh. Q2 26 decreased by 3%, closing at EUR 39/MWh. For annual contracts, cal 26 decreased by 1% to EUR 61.05/MWh, and cal 2027 declined by 1.2% to EUR 58.71/MWh.
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