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VOL 8 | NUM 35 | 6 May 2026
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IBERIA | 27 April - 3 May 2026
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Once more, Iberian peninsula has been saved from the near EUR -500/MWh price reached in France by limited interconnection
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 56.1/MWh last week, registering a rise of 11.3% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 50.4/MWh). This weekly price was 264% higher than 2025 (EUR 15.4/MWh) and 98% higher than in 2024 (EUR 28.3/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 45.2/MWh, -35% lower than YTD value in 2025 (EUR 69.2/MWh) and 27% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 35.7/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -2.3%, reaching 5.54 TWh, compared to the 5.67 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Wind generation share rose by 1 pp, while solar declined by 1 pp
- Gas share increased by 1 pp to balance the decline of nuclear by 1 pp
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Global renewable energy share increased from 61.4% to 61.8% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Another week of strong decoupling between Spain and France, where France and most of Europe have reached the minimal level of prices during the bank holiday of May 1st, on Friday. In Iberia, apart for Wednesday, when solar production was the lowest of the week, price droped to zero or near zero negative values every day, during daytime. At night, depending on the wind output and demand, price stabilized between EUR 50 and EUR 100/MWh, with peaks around EUR 125/MWh on Thursday, when wind was at its lowest.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 125.5/MWh, reached on Friday at 9:30 p.m., coupled with Portugal. Minimum price, EUR -2.1/MWh was reached on Friday afternoon between at 2:30 p.m. and 4:45 p.m., coupled with Portugal most of the time, while France was recovering from reaching EUR -499/MWh.
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The SWE grid coupling was 28%, higher than recorded the previous week, 18%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 92%
- Spain-France: 28%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 28%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 56.1/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 55.3/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 56.1/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 12.5/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 5.5 GW. Almaraz 1 continues in maintenance until May 10, and Cofrentes went out on Wednesday after a failure, and is planned to be unavailable until May 21.
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation. Large pumping during day-time was present alongside the week in Spain and Portugal.
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 3.8 GW with relatively limited night peak generation thanks to the large hydraulic production.
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- Solar was the first source of electricity during 46% of the week, followed by hydraulic (40%) and wind (11%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 40% and 76% of total generation, a similar variation than observed in the previous week (38% and 75%). Wind's maximum share reached 33% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 64%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.8 TWh, 5.2% higher than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 1.6 TWh, 5.5% lower than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 16.1/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 13.1/MWh
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Spain
EUR 60.9/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 62.1/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market,
continued to rise as markets priced in sustained geopolitical risks around the Middle East and fading prospects for US–Iran diplomacy. Prices moved higher early in the week after peace talks were scrapped, reinforcing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions. The rally extended into mid‑week, with Brent breaking above USD 110/bbl, supported by a continuing diplomatic stalemate and expectations of tighter global oil balances. Attention also turned to broader geopolitical developments, including signals around UAE exit from Opec+, which added uncertainty to the supply outlook. On Thursday, Brent briefly surged to four‑year highs above USD 125/bbl as the US reiterated its blockade strategy, before easing slightly by Friday amid persistent volatility. Settlements increased from USD 101.69/bbl on Monday to USD 108.17/bbl on Friday, within a wide range of USD 99.58–114.70/bbl.
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European gas prices
prices started the week supported by the ongoing US–Iran diplomatic standoff and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the market tightening in the absence of clarity on any reopening and the resumption of LNG flows. Gains extended into Tuesday and Wednesday as the cancellation of talks increased the probability of a prolonged disruption scenario, amplified by a spillover effect from higher oil prices and by structurally low storage levels ahead of the injection season. On Thursday, TTF reached fresh two‑week highs as supply risks remained elevated and planned Norwegian maintenance (Kollsnes/Troll/Oseberg) kept the market sensitive to pipeline flow variability. Storage levels closed the week around 32.5% and mild weather forecasts limiting additional upside. Settlements rose from EUR 44.68/MWh on Monday to EUR 45.77/MWh on Friday, with a weekly range of EUR
43.13–48.96/MWh.
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European carbon prices
remained within the mid‑EUR 70/t range, as weaker investor positioning and policy uncertainty capped price movements. Speculative investors reduced their net long exposure, with investment funds’ net long position falling to 37.9 Mt, the lowest level in eight months, driven mainly by a decline in long positions. Market sentiment remained cautious ahead of expected updates to free allocation benchmarks, which are anticipated to add near‑term downside risk by shaping expectations around industrial demand and compliance balances. On the supply side, around 9.7 Mt of EUAs were successfully auctioned during the week at an average price of EUR 73.28/t. Overall, settlements edged slightly lower from EUR 74.74/t on Monday to EUR 73.94/t on Friday, within a weekly range of EUR 72.85–76.04/t.
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Finally, power futures increased. Q3 26 closed rising 9.6% at EUR 83.5/MWh, while Q4 26 rose by 5.3% to EUR 86.9/MWh. Q1 27 rose by 2.4% to EUR 71.8/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 27 rose by 4.2% to EUR 59.4/MWh, and Cal 28 rose by 1.3% to EUR 55.6/MWh.
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