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VOL 8 | NUM 3 | 23 September 2025
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IBERIA | 15 - 21 September 2025
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
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Day-Ahead Market weekly average price spiked alongside the demand increase and wind generation drop
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 74.3/MWh last week, registering a rise of 21% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 61.3/MWh). This weekly price was same as 2024 and 25% lower than in 2023 (EUR 99.4/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 63.7/MWh, 23% higher than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 51.9/MWh) and 30% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 90.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 3.1%, reaching 6.01 TWh, compared to the 5.83 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- A drop in wind generation by -3.6 pp, followed by nuclear (-2.3 pp)
- Balanced by a rise of gas production by 4.7 pp
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Global renewable energy share slightly decreased from 57.9% to 54.3% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Spanish DAM prices presented a highly volatile profile through the week, similar to the week before. Prices dropped to floor values during solar hours (near zero) and escalated rapidly on the morning and afternoon peaks (up to EUR 200/MWh and above). The weekly maximum was EUR 215/MWh, reached on Wednesday at 9 p.m.. Minimum price, EUR -0.62/MWh was reached on Sunday at 4 p.m..
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Spanish prices briefly decoupled from Portugal during solar hours on Saturday midday. Meanwhile France kept a low coupling rate with the Peninsula, with overall lower prices as the French DAM price was EUR 32.9/MWh.
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The SWE grid coupling was 13%, lower compared to the value recorded the previous week, 27%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 97%
- Spain-France: 14%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 13%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 74.3/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 84.8/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 74.4/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 32.9/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 6.0 GW, as Cofrentes and Almaraz 1 units lowered their production due to operational unavailability and failure respectively. Cofrentes started its planned maintenance on September 19. It will last until October 26
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation. The hourly average production was 4.4 GW. Large pumping during day-time was present alongside the week in Spain and Portugal, specially over the weekend
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 6.5 GW and relevant baseload, with weekly maximum values of 14.6 GW on Tuesday at 9 p.m.
- Coal production did a short and unobtrusive comeback, production during 44h an average of 163 MW when wind was at its lowest (from Tuesday evening to Thursday morning)
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- Solar PV was the first source of electricity during 40% of the week, followed by wind (26%) and gas (26%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 33% and 71% of total generation, a wider variation than observed in the previous week (40% and 72%). Wind's maximum share reached 48% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 59%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.9 TWh, 16.2% lower than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 1.4 TWh, 0.1% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 32.2/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 28.5/MWh
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Spain
EUR 77.6/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 66.3/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the MD price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market, prices fluctuated throughout the week as geopolitical risks from Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure clashed with concerns about slowing global growth. Brent crude traded within a narrow USD 65–70/bbl range, last seen at USD 67.30/bbl on Friday. While Ukrainian strikes on refineries and export terminals fuelled supply concerns, weak macroeconomic signals from the US and China and uncertainty around trade tensions capped further gains. Despite volatility, oil benchmarks ended the week around 1% higher, supported by expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical risks providing a price floor.
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European gas prices moved within a tight range, supported midweek by unplanned Norwegian outages at Troll and Kollsnes, which lifted the TTF front-month to a one-week high of EUR 33.04/MWh. However, ample LNG imports, robust storage levels at 81% capacity, and high renewable output limited further upside, with the contract ending the week closer to EUR 32.88/MWh.
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European carbon prices rallied to a seven-month high of EUR 78.45/t midweek, driven by speculative buying and compliance demand ahead of the 30 September deadline. The benchmark Dec 25 EUA contract settled at EUR 77.68/t on Friday, consolidating within a EUR 75–80/t band. Analysts suggested further upside potential toward EUR 80–81/t, supported by investor net long positions reaching their highest since February.
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Finally, power futures remained relatively stable. Q4 25 closed at EUR 73.85/MWh, a 0.7% increase, while Q1 26 deflated by 1.2% to EUR 65.0/MWh. Q2 26 declined also by 1.2%, closing at EUR 39.0/MWh. For annual contracts both CAL 26 and 27 declined, by 1% to EUR 61.05/MWh, and by 1.2% to EUR 58.71/MWh, respectively.
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