|
|
VOL 8 | NUM 27 | 10 March 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IBERIA | 2 - 8 March 2026
|
|
|
|
Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intraday volatility intensifies in the Day‑Ahead Market as global commodity prices surge on geopolitical risk
|
|
|
|
The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 56.8/MWh last week, registering a rise of 133.7% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 24.3/MWh). This weekly price was 14% lower than 2024 (EUR 65.9/MWh) and 303% higher than in 2023 (EUR 14.1/MWh).
|
|
YTD average is EUR 48.4/MWh, -51% lower than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 98.6/MWh) and -3% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 49.8/MWh).
|
|
Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Generation plus imports in Iberia increased by 3.3%, reaching 6.34 TWh, compared to the 6.14 TWh recorded the previous week.
|
|
The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
|
- Wind generation increased by 9.5 pp. followed by hydro (3.1 pp)
- Resulting in share decrease of solar PV (-5.6 pp), nuclear (-3.9 pp) and imports (-1.5 pp)
|
|
Global renewable energy share increased from 63.6% to 70.1% since the previous week.
|
|
Generation Mix Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
Variation Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nuclear
|
|
Cogeneration
|
|
Renewable thermal
|
|
Coal
|
|
Combined cycle
|
|
|
Hydraulic
|
|
Wind
|
|
Solar PV
|
|
Solar thermal
|
|
Imports
|
|
|
|
Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly prices averaged higher than in previous weeks, with fewer drops to floor levels despite a 70% renewable mix. Volatility remained high, with some hours close to zero and others spiking above EUR 100/MWh. France showed stronger peaks than Iberia, while Portugal and Spain continued to decouple frequently during solar hours from Europe. No negative day‑ahead prices occurred, though intraday briefly dropped below zero when day‑ahead cleared at EUR 0/MWh on Monday.
|
|
The weekly maximum was EUR 186.6/MWh, reached on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m., coupled with Portugal and France. Minimum price, EUR 0/MWh was reached on Monday between 11:30 a.m. and 2:45 p.m., coupled with France most of the time.
|
|
The SWE grid coupling was 53%, higher than recorded the previous week, 42%.
|
- Spain-Portugal: 93%
- Spain-France: 58%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 53%
|
|
Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spanish DAM
EUR 56.8/MWh
|
|
Spanish IM
EUR 59.3/MWh
|
|
Portugal DAM
EUR 55.5/MWh
|
|
France DAM
EUR 65.5/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
|
|
The highlights from last week
|
- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 4.5 GW. Trillo will be back on operation on April 10 after its scheduled maintenance, which started on March 7. Almaraz 2 stopped on March 3 and will remain offline until March 15 due to an operational unavailability, while Vandellós stopped on March 4 due to a shutdown, but later reported an operational unavailability, which ended on March 9
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation, with relevant baseload generation and almost no pumping. The hourly average production was 11.0 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5.0 GW, with weekly maximum values of 10.4 GW on Wednesday at 7 p.m.
|
- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 55% of the week, followed by solar PV (26%) and wind (18%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 55% and 80% of total generation, a higher variation than observed in the previous week (47% and 76%). Wind's maximum share reached 47% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 57%
|
|
Solar and wind generation
|
- Wind generation was 1.4 TWh, 76.1% higher than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 1 TWh, 24.5% lower than the previous week
|
|
Generation by technology Iberia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interconnections by country, from Spain
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hourly wind & solar generation
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solar PV Price
|
Wind Price
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 27.8/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 28.6/MWh
|
|
|
|
Spain
EUR 52.1/MWh
|
|
Portugal
EUR 52/MWh
|
|
|
|
|
|
*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
|
|
|
|
|
Futures Market & Commodities
|
|
On the oil market, prices surged to fresh 14‑month highs as the Middle East conflict escalated combined with an effective halt to Strait of Hormuz traffic amplified supply‑risk premiums, and reports of disrupted Saudi operations (Ras Tanura) added support. Prices hovered near highs mid‑week despite US assurances on shipping cover, then climbed further as China was reportedly curbing fuel exports; a late‑week dip followed US waivers allowing India to purchase Russian oil at sea, but the overall rally held. An announced Opec+ April increase of 206 kb/d offered only limited counterbalance to the risk backdrop. Over the week, settlements rose from USD 77.74/bbl on Monday to USD 92.69/bbl on Friday, roughly a +19% week on week gain, with an intraday high of USD 94.64/bbl on Friday.
|
|
European gas prices
experienced exceptional volatility as the Middle East conflict sharply elevated supply‑risk premiums. On Monday, the TTF front month surged more than 20% after weekend strikes on Iran halted LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly one‑fifth of global LNG shipments transit. Prices spiked again on Tuesday to a three‑year high of EUR 65.79/MWh, driven by concerns over halted Qatari production following drone attacks on the Ras Laffan LNG complex. The rally partially unwound on Wednesday amid reports suggesting Iran had approached the US about possible talks, but uncertainty kept markets sensitive to headlines. Prices gained again on Thursday and Friday as traders reassessed the risks of prolonged disruptions, supported by persistently low storage levels, EU inventories at 29.6% and Germany at 20.5%. Over the week, settlements rose sharply from EUR 44.51/MWh on Monday to
EUR 53.39/MWh on Friday, despite large intraday swings.
|
|
European carbon prices
were relatively stable this week despite sharp volatility across the wider energy complex. The Dec‑26 contract briefly dropped to a nine‑month low of EUR 67.90/t on Monday, but quickly recovered. Investor positioning continued to soften, with speculative net‑long holdings falling for a sixth consecutive week to 63.3 Mt, the lowest since September and around half the peak seen in mid‑January. Prices strengthened mid‑week, reaching an intraweek high of EUR 74.84/t on Tuesday, before easing back toward the EUR 70–71/t range. Over the week, settlements moved only marginally, from EUR 70.57/t on Monday to EUR 70.57/t on Friday, supported also by steady auction volumes of 10.7 Mt at an average price of EUR 69.32/t.
|
|
Finally, power futures skyrocketed due to the geopolitical instability. Q2 26 closed rising 65.6% at EUR 47.7/MWh, while Q3 26 rose by 22.7% to EUR 73.5/MWh. Q4 26 rose by 13.6% to EUR 78.4/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 27 rose by 5.9% to EUR 57.1/MWh, and Cal 28 rose by 4% to EUR 55/MWh.
|
Why you are receiving this email
|
You are receiving this email because you are subscribed to our Power Markets Weekly report - IBERIA. If you no longer wish to receive this report, or if you would like to subscribe to other regional reports, you can manage your subscription using the button on the right.
|
|
|
|
DNV, Calle Santa Maria Magdalena 14, 28016 Madrid
|
|
|
|
|
This e-mail and any attachments thereto may contain confidential information and/or information protected by intellectual property rights for the exclusive attention of the intended addressees named above. If you have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify the sender by return e-mail and delete this message and its attachments. Unauthorized use, copying or further full or partial distribution of this e-mail or its contents is prohibited.
|
Your
data appears in a file under the responsibility of DNV Maritime and Energy, S.L.U. - NIF: 82800798 Postal address: Calle Santa Maria Magdalena, 14 - Planta 2, 28016, Madrid, E-mail: power-markets-weekly@dnv.com. On behalf of the company we treat the information you provide us with in order to send you market information, information related to our services and invitations to events. The data provided will be kept as long as you do not request the cessation of the activity. The data will not be transferred to third parties except in cases where there is a legal obligation. You have the right to obtain confirmation on whether in DNV GL Services Spain S.L. we are treating your personal data so you have the right to access your personal data, rectify inaccurate data or request its deletion when the data is no longer necessary.
|
DNV GL Services Spain S.L. publishes this weekly report using public information from OMIE, REE y MEFF. This document is for information purposes only. Its partial or total reproduction is authorized while mentioning its source as DNV. Opinions herein expressed are proprietary.
|
|
|
