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VOL 8 | NUM 26 | 3 March 2026
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IBERIA | 23 February - 1 March 2026
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Power Markets Weekly
is a brief weekly review of the electric market operation in Chile, Mexico, Iberia, France and Italy. If you are not a subscriber, please feel free to subscribe
here
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DNV offers tools for Wholesale Market analysis and operation:
- DNV Power Analytics (DNV-PA) is our web-based platform that provides access to constantly updated long-term energy price forecasts.
- With a refined design and an improved user experience we are upgrading our digital services for our customers.
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Day‑Ahead Market price strengthened, showing elevated intraday volatility
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The average price of Day-Ahead Market in Spain reached EUR 24.3/MWh last week, registering a rise of 18% compared to the previous week's average (EUR 20.6/MWh). This weekly price was 74% lower than 2024 (EUR 91.7/MWh) and 440% higher than in 2023 (EUR 4.5/MWh).
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YTD average is EUR 47.5/MWh, -54% lower than YTD value in 2024 (EUR 102.2/MWh) and -12% lower than YTD value in 2023 (EUR 53.8/MWh).
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Annual evolution of the average weekly price of the Spanish Daily Market
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Generation plus imports in Iberia decreased by -5%, reaching 6.14 TWh, compared to the 6.46 TWh recorded the previous week.
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The main changes observed in the energy mix, compared to the previous week, were:
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- Solar PV increased its share by 4.4 pp, followed by imports (1.9 pp), hydro (1.8 pp), gas (1.8 pp) and nuclear (1.0 pp)
- Resulting in share decrease of wind generation (-12 pp)
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Global renewable energy share decreased from 68.7% to 63.6% since the previous week.
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Generation Mix Iberia
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Variation Iberia
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Nuclear
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Cogeneration
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Renewable thermal
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Coal
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Combined cycle
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Hydraulic
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Wind
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Solar PV
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Solar thermal
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Imports
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Power range by energy sources vs demand Iberia
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Hourly prices showed a stronger coupling with the rest of Europe this week as interconnection flows with France began to recover, although they remain well below normal levels. Negative or near‑zero prices continued during solar hours, while morning and afternoon peaks were more pronounced than in previous weeks, leading to higher intraday volatility. Despite the improved coupling at the Iberian‑French border, Portugal still decoupled from Spain frequently, especially during midday. Even so, the weekly average price across the three countries ended up relatively similar.
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The weekly maximum was EUR 187.1/MWh, reached on Monday between 8:15 and 8:30 p.m., coupled with Portugal. Minimum price, EUR -2.1/MWh was reached on Thursday and Sunday, between 11:30 a.m. until 3:45 p.m. on Thursday and 3:30 p.m. on Sunday.
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The SWE grid coupling was 42%, higher than recorded the previous week, 22%.
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- Spain-Portugal: 61%
- Spain-France: 59%
- SWE (ES-PT-FR): 42%
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Weekly evolution of the hourly price of the Day-ahead and Intraday Market (DAM and IM)
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Spanish DAM
EUR 24.3/MWh
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Spanish IM
EUR 21.7/MWh
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Portugal DAM
EUR 23/MWh
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France DAM
EUR 22.4/MWh
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Hourly detail of the generation & interconnections in Iberia
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The highlights from last week
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- The hourly average output of nuclear generation was 5.7 GW. Trillo did not generate due to an operational unavailability, and will be back on operation on April 10 after its scheduled maintenance, which will start on March 7
- Hydraulic generation provided night-time peak generation, with some baseload generation. The hourly average production was 9.6 GW
- Gas generation provided an hourly average output of 5.1 GW, with weekly maximum values of 11.9 GW on Monday at 8 p.m.
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- Hydro was the first source of electricity during 57% of the week, followed by solar PV (37%) and wind (6%)
- Hourly renewable share fluctuated between 47% and 76% of total generation, almost the same to the one observed in the previous week (46% and 77%). Wind's maximum share reached 34% of hourly generation, while solar PV's maximum share reached 58%
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Solar and wind generation
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- Wind generation was 0.8 TWh, 49.9% lower than the previous week
- Solar PV generation was 1.3 TWh, 19.9% higher than the previous week
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Generation by technology Iberia
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Interconnections by country, from Spain
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Hourly wind & solar generation
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Solar PV Price
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Wind Price
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Spain
EUR 3.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 6.3/MWh
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Spain
EUR 26.3/MWh
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Portugal
EUR 20.7/MWh
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*The solar / wind price has been calculated as the DA price weighted by the solar / wind generation of the peninsula.
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Futures Market & Commodities
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On the oil market,
prices eased early in the week on expectations of further negotiations but stayed supported by lingering geopolitical tensions and the significant US military buildup in the region. Sentiment remained cautious after Opec+ signaled a modest production increase of 206,000 bbl/d for April, adding a slight supply‑side counterbalance to the geopolitical risk premium. Toward the end of the period, Brent firmed as talks were extended and reports pointed to reduced Iranian export capacity. Over the week, settlements rose from USD 71.11/bbl on Monday to USD 72.87/bbl on Friday, with a weekly high of USD 73.54/bbl. Although not reflected in these weekly prices, Brent has surged following the Iran–Israel airstrikes, which have sharply increased supply risk concerns and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
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European gas prices traded mostly lower last week as mild weather, abundant LNG supply and steady Norwegian flows kept demand expectations subdued. The TTF front month hovered around EUR 30–32/MWh, with limited upside despite low storage levels, EU stocks at 30.2% and German reserves at 20.5%. Prices edged slightly higher on Friday amid ongoing US–Iran tensions, but overall stayed range‑bound. Weekly settlements moved from EUR 31.46/MWh on Monday to EUR 31.96/MWh on Friday. Although outside this reporting period, TTF jumped more than 20% today after Iran–Israel airstrikes halted LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one‑fifth of global LNG flows.
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European carbon prices were pressured by renewed uncertainty around future ETS reforms. The Dec‑26 contract briefly fell to EUR 69.25/t on Thursday, its lowest level since 18 February, following calls from Italy to suspend the system until a broader reform is implemented. Investor positioning also weakened: speculative net‑long holdings declined for a sixth consecutive week to 68.8 Mt, the lowest since early September. Despite the mid‑week drop, EUAs remained broadly range‑bound around EUR 70–73/t, with settlements moving from EUR 71.38/t on Monday to EUR 70.29/t on Friday. Weekly auctions totaled 9.2 Mt at an average price of EUR 69.68/t.
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Finally, power futures decreased. Q2 26 closed decreasing 10.6% at EUR 28.8/MWh, while Q3 26 decreased by 3.7% to EUR 59.9/MWh. Q4 26 decreased by 3.2% to EUR 69/MWh. For annual contracts, Cal 27 decreased by 2.5% to EUR 53.9/MWh, and Cal 28 decreased by 2.9% to EUR 52.9/MWh.
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